As they say, “the calmness after the storm”, but as it is several days before the F8 conference to take place this Sept 22nd, I could not help thinking about how we are basically experiencing a certain “calmness” before the storm to hit this Thurs in the mobile/online world.

We have all settled in a bit and have felt the war on mobile is basically the OS war between Google Android and iOS.  As Apple prep’s to make their announcements this coming October with iPhone 5, it is not serendipitous that Facebook is looking to make an announcement 2 weeks prior.  Over the last 5 years there has been a massive shift in behavior online to social.   The Google and Apple fight seemed to pass by Nokia without even a battle.  Nokia abandoning Symbian has now embraced the old online incumbent Microsoft with the Win7 platform as their next generation strategy of smartphones.  In my mind, this was such a strange decision as there was so much opportunity still to focus as a first priority with Meego, and not throw the “baby out with the dishwater” in the panic attack to enter the market again Google ( now Google-Motorola) and Apple.

However, I think the game could have been played out much differently if Nokia kept to its guns and supported Meego first and foremost with these two major strategies moving forward.

1) Web OS  ( getting rid of all native Apps for an HTML5 Responsive based ecosystem first)  *More on this in future posts

2) Taking a bolt step with Facebook, to make Meego the right open-source lower level  architecture with UI integration, and working with Facebook as the entire Application level OS as a strategy.   This thinking would be very US focused, but a plan nevertheless for a global competitive position for the next generation Social OS.

Instead of trying to develop an OS to compete with Apple and Google, give a strong ownership position of the Meego OS over to Facebook.   Not only has Facebook been the #1 App of choice across Android and iPhone, given the fact that mobile has always been about communicating and sharing ( the core DNA of a mobile device to begin with)  partnering with a company like Facebook at that strategic level several years ago would had been a unique position for even the likes of Nokia to bridge to the next shift in the future of mobility and just about everything- Social.   I am convinced the next generations of OS will be a Social Operating System, and there is no better then Facebook to make that happen when Nokia was the #1 in Smart phones several years ago.   We are seeing Google come back into the game with Google+ that in my mind will be the core to Android devices in the future.

With Nokia now dependent on Microsoft and Win7 now to drive the strategy, how will this be an advantage? Especially since with Social as a core strategy, it does not leave Nokia with much.   The right relationship with Facebook, would had been a strategy that could had given users the best position for this next wave.

Now that Facebook will be potentially launching Spartan at F8, It seems like that ship has left that station now even for Nokia, and the future opportunity to grab the “bull by the horns” with the next generation OS might now just be a drawn playing card.

I am excited to see what Facebook announces this week at F8 as well as the future of SPARTAN.    I have been a big believer in the future of the Web standards of HTML for the future of applications and connectivity cross-media.   Having a platform that works cross-mobile, online, tablet and social with HTML5 is an exciting future to be laid out with the Social Media OS.

Although, maybe Facebook will do this on its own? Have they enticed Device Manufacturers to join the camp such as HTC, Samsung, and others that are now looking for other options since the Motorola Acquisition by Google?  Nokia is still sitting in a good position with its patents, that the Nokia-Facebook Alliance ( even the Blue-Logo’s and the Connecting People expression make sense together) would make sense?  Could we even see Facebook buying Nokia before Microsoft does? That would be an interesting twist of events.

In any event these are all just thoughts that came to my mind before Facebook’s big F8 event on Thurs…. Here is also a modified Comscore chart with Facebook added.

Here is some good commentary on the “Social Media Wars” on ABCnews

We are excited about the MXM conference to have a live stream so that participants from around the world can tune-in and watch the event.  They can collaborate via Twitter, as well as fell part of the event without traveling across the globe to get there.

Check out the Facebook page for MXM:MediaCrossMedia

Check out the Ustream.TV channel page for information on programing etc…

This week the Android Platform was cited as the most shipped platform in the Smartphone Category in North America.  Given the fact there are very low-end products now being produced in regions like China and the rest of the world to house the Android Operating System, the momentum is absolutely incredible.

If they keep going along the same growth trajectory, they will be in a position to ship 1 Billion Android devices/ year by the end of 2011.   As we all have heard the statistic that over 50% of the US market will be occupied by Smart phones at that time, it is not surprising that a variety of low to high end Android devices could absolutely take over the marketplace globally. Where is Nokia in the battle of momentum and explosive growth? Where is Microsoft? Will there be another player to emerge? With NTT DoCoMo and Softbank in Japan embracing Android, it looks as though they have the momentum on thier side with this platform.  What will the world be like with (Free monetized by Adverting ) Google now in a position to enable access of the worlds information,  have all the data and in a unique position to monetize in new forms.

Apple is growing fast, but not as fast as they do not have that same multiplier effect of multiple hardware manufactures on their side.  Is it time for Apple to improve their growth strategy?  How interesting would it be for Apple to combine forces with another major Hardware manufacturer that is known for a different brand vertical and value proposition then Apple in this explosive world domination game.

We all know the fight going on between Flash and Apple over the iPad and iPhone……so it looked like we were going to see HTML5 as a potential  standard cross-platform for mobile and online potentially little faster then normal.  Blackberry 6 has brought WebKit and HTML5 to the world of mobile browsing, and Android keeps pushing the envelope with HTML5 evangelism even though they do have been a strong believer as well in Flash 10.1.

However, yesterdays news that Microsoft will not include HTML5 in IE7,IE8 might not have been the most strategic move even though there was the discussion of HTML5 in IE9.    In my opinion it is not HTML5 vs. Flash, but Developer vs. Platform we are talking about here. Now there is a very strong split between the camps supporting either HLML5 or Flash.    If Microsoft would have made the strong statement right away to move forward with HTML5, at least there would have been one platform for all that would bring mobile and online together in a very eloquent way today.  So Developer, it is just going to take time to get that consistency across all devices…..

In a diagram laid out by Tim OReily back in the end of last year, he showed the possibility of a unique convergence between Native and Browsing in 2010.

Well it looks like it is going to take more time.  Either Apple will come to grips and add Flash Support, or we need to wait on Microsoft to move a bit faster to integrate HTML5 support in existing browser platforms.

All and all, I believe in a couple years time we will see both platforms ubiquitous, so why all the fuss in 2010.  Why not make everything open and available for the web developer community and let them decide what is best.  At least this way we will not have inconsistencies for the end-users….or double to money and effort for developers

This post will include my overall coverage of the event.

( Starting at 1pm PST)