There has been a lot of debate recently about whether Foursquare will truly become the main point of check-in’s around places in the future, or our others going to to be the next game in town ? With Facebook’s Places now extending to Blackberry’s and the roadmap growth process for the 600M+ users,  Foursquare only has 4M users is not even 1% the size of its Goliath predator. Foursquare has been growing with brands and starting to bring lots of new value with different promotional relationships and feeds to their platform, but can they grow fast enough as a company focused on local and is their growth  pace enough to be sustainable? Recently Foursquare was compared to Groupon in its efforts to bring value-added promotions around the community, and some say that Foursquare will need thousands of resources to keep the momentum going.   Even though advertising can be considered great content ( if presented in the right way)  is it the right content that will make Foursquare scale with user acquisition?  For some reason, I believe that it is a good direction, but I am not convinced it is really the right focused strategy as it is so resource intensive to do all those deals.  Groupon emerged with a very different business model for user attraction that has been very local, but not as hyper-local as Foursquare.

In my recent visit to conference around local advertising from the perspective of the local directory companies, Foursquare was a hot-topic, but they seemed to be working toward building their own anchor around local advertisers and Foursquare was not the centerpiece.  There was more debate and discussion around social media distribution in general around Facebook and Twitter.  Foursquare’s game got them out of the gate, and they have tapped into the behavior of the check-in, but others are fast to copy this phenomena.   I am really looking forward to seeing how they scale, but they need something more organic wow now to attract users like they did with the first game concept.   I am looking forward to this evolution and see how they balance user focus vs. advertising in the future, with or without that sales force.  My question is can they keep the game going to continue to game users? Can the game concept continue to grow at a local level?

ADO produces MXM in cooperation with IMC

Some thoughts of key trends and areas of growth for 2010.

1) Facebook will move from the major online social media player to a very focused mobile application and developer platform.

Facebook Connect will take on new meanings.  Mobile Advertising will become the a key social media/ direct marketing/ brand monetization player in the mobile industry. Maybe even stronger then Google/Admob?

2) Smart Phone Critical Mass. Smart phone penetration will continue to accelerate with Apple again surprising us amongst the massive competitive releases from Google, Nokia, RIM and Palm.  2010 will leave us with >20% ( maybe >30% US)  of all devices in the market to become Smart Phones.  In 2009, about 17% of the US market had smart phones.  It has been predicted by Strategic Analytics and others that 50% of the market will be using smart phones by 2013.  So 2010 is the  turning point year in the industry as the massive transition will start as iPhone/ Android- Nexus One/ RIM/ Palm and Nokia devices compete like crazy that drives user adaption very quickly over the course of the year.

3) Mobile Ad Server and Mobile Ad Network convergence with Online will follow streamlining in the Agency and Marketing world. Mobile as a stand-alone media strategy and channel only will be less and less apparent… AdMob/ Quattro were the first to go, but the other mobile ad networks will be part of the continued M&A frenzy of the Online players looking to cross-over to mobile.

4) Cross-Border innovation and Cooperation will take a new form in the mobile space.  A spree of unexpected M&A from Asia to the US, and visa versa will solidify the need for operational interdependence in the mobile space. Regional Carriers and cross-boarder alliances…. I particularly feel this to be the case with  Korea, Japan and Taiwan first over China which will  happen a bit later.

5) Social Brand Marketing Innovation will continue to occur around the unique engagement and real-time platforms of Twitter, Google Wave and Bing, thus solidifying a more established budgeting process for brand marketers in digital with social media, search.  This could be the year of media buy transition from Traditional to Social. The rise of the social media agency and more association of engagement to pricing models… Intuition models? WOM models?

6) The innovation focus on Applications ( iPhone)  will continue, but there will be several new devices in the market that will begin to challenge this with the pure Web experience! Namely Nokia/ Android….HTML5? Flash light 3.1?  The App store frenzy will continue.

7) Real-time search will continue be a major topic and key to the “mobile moment”. We will see a unique convergence with entertainment and maybe event the music space.

8) Live streaming! We started the trend in 2009 with the U2 event and a variety of others, but live streaming now will ins 2010 become a basic requirement and model for events. Enabling increased revenue opportinities for the “mobile moment”.

9) Location will be a key factor in direct marketing performance pricing, and new innovative inventory opportunities will become mainstream.  Augmented Reality, Navigation Advertising,  Social Location….. map integration in media properties and publications will be standard.  It will take time for this to really evolve and fill as a true inventory source, but the critical foundation will be set it 2010.

10) User-Generated Content portals and Mash-ups will continue and verticalize.  There will be some big surprising new UGC solution portals for sale in 2010.

With the recent news of Google’s acquisition of AbMob for $750M, there has been real debate over what is to come of the mobile Internet and apps.  I found this acquisition interesting as one of the key strengths and strategies of AdMob has been in facilitating the iPhone in-app ad market. Although there are many providers such as SMAATO, Greystrip, etc…,  AdMob’s strength was with their self-serve engine and global footprint that enabled them to scale quite eloquently with the iPhone as well.  Many claim they were the mobile ad experts of  the long-tail publishers,  but iPhone was not a long-tail product with many extremely creative premium brand engagement solutions as apps leveraging AdMob.  With up to 60% of the apps free,  the facilities of AdMob and the others have been the key driver of this business model for developers focusing on the rich app experience.  Now with this acquisition, Google has its own foot hold in the marketplace of iPhone advertising even as it embarks on its own independent  journey with Android, with the monetization of both in-app and web a balanced growth and combined cross-media strategy.   As we have heard in the press,  Google positioned Android as the Internet machine,  the ability to add free navigation and scale with the largest advertising community on the web today inclusive of mobile puts them in a very solid lead position.

Apple does not have its own advertising platform for mobile to facilitate the free, but has been doing quite well without it.  Will Apple need its own advertising solutions to potentially offer as part of the free solution?  If I were a mobile ad exchange,  I would be talking to Apple about how to integrate the solution into the App Store process with the best yield management to give developers with their free offering the best revenue streams through federating in even Google and Admob. Was this not a problem that AdMob had not to long ago? At the end of the day as Apple is managing the platform, they are in a position to give developers the best revenue streams through yeild management and discovery.  This is what Facebook has done.  Enable their own advertising platform for their marketplace.  I think this trend will continue with platform providers all having their own solution for ad-serving and federating in ad networks and ad-tags.  I think who ever has an app store will now need an advertising exchange platform for support the delivery of free apps.   Not only that, having this facility will also enable some of the best opportunities for data optimization and relevancy targeting.  How will this now sit with AT&T that Google has better analytics of what is happening in the free community of iPhone?   Apple made the decision to drop Google maps and to bring in their own unique map platform?   Will Apple keep to the D2C only strategy and not get into these services further? As iPhone now grows,  so does Google with the acquisition of AdMob, giving them the data insights and strategies to see what is hot and what is not through the analytics of free in the iPhone Marketplace. We may someday forget the very powerful great reports that AdMob delivered to us about the state of the mobile industry via their network, as this will potentially go “dark” as Google has not been so forthcoming with that type of industry analytics for free. Yes- we get products and services for free, but the “secret behind-the-scenes analytical intelligence” is something worth its weight in gold and now a key asset they have to expand further.

iPhone is leading the pack when it comes to velocity, but Android is making its mark… with this we are bound to see Apple needing to expand to the other carriers in North America and also potentially open up a bit.  I would love to see stronger alliances with iPhone between the likes of RIM, Motorola, Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, HTC but those bridges seemed to be burned long ago? or not?

We are still in the early days of penetration of smart-phones and the overall potential of mobile access of the Internet in my opinion.   There are 150M Websites out there that are getting hit everyday even with mobile devices.  Many of them are iPhones that set the marketplace here in North America for full HTML browsing.  What is 100K apps compared to 150M websites? less then 0.1% of the size and potential of the Internet and with all devices in the future accessing the web, we are bound to see millions of widgets and mobile-versions of websites.

So when we say Apples to Apples comparison with iPhone,  I really feel we are talking about Apples to Gorillas unless Apple does make some major moves with strategic alliances and acquisitions.  I was once told, ” There is always somebody out there smarter and stronger then yourself in many ways, so leverage the community”.  Apple going at it on its own will now be a challenge with the Open Android approach that is sucking in so many of the hardware companies.  With Google now behind Motorola ( the giant that has been dormant for the last couple of years) and many others, it was fine for Apple to become great friends of the consumer, but they need more friends in this overall marketplace….. So lets hope and see if Apple will become the Gorilla in the room in the years to come.