Over the course of the last several years, Apps for iOS, Android, Blackberry and even Symbian paved the way for the strong value proposition of the optimized mobile experience for brands, publishers, developers and content creators. The closed App Store ecosystem created a business model for these App owners to make money in a way never before possible within the “Walled-Garden” environment of the Mobile Operators.  These solutions were driven by Device side owner of the business (Apple, Google, RIM and others) and the day AT&T “drank the poison pill” and let Apple have full control, set into motion a unique new mobile world order that changed the position of the Carriers.  However, the caveat to these closed Application marketplaces has been the ability for discovery and marketability of Applications- a problem sorted out in the internet world with Google search

Today, many have seen HTML5 the next big hope in the future of the Application business.  As most of the mobile browsers today house-Webkit (the open source mobile safari browser).  The promise of an Application solution that can work from the browser across all the devices is an exciting possibility.  This evolution is moving fast and it is being driven by Google and in my opinion part of the grand master plan for domination. Google has been using HTML5 to make a compelling case for device-specific views (the same website but mobile or online depending on the screen size.  The strength in an Application world driven by HTML5 is that it lives by the same discovery guidelines of the internet and there is no question this is the strength of Google or the Online Market leaders.

Just this last week, was a big day for HTML5.  Facebook made a big announcement around their initiatives for HTML5 Apps as part of their mobile framework.  Since the launch of the iPhone and the iPad, all eyes have been on the HTML5 evolution vs. Flash as well as the development of mobile web apps vs. native apps.  Even though there has been some time before the fragmentation settles, it looks like we are now at a turning point for a stronger evolution of HTML5 Apps in the ecosystem.

So is this the chance that Carriers are waiting for? AT&T seems to be pushing big for the evolution of HTML5 (Link to other article).  DoCoMo did a great job over the last decade with building out a dedicated mobile web framework called “iMode” that had a separate parsing and billing mechanism for both official and non-official sites with Carrier billing.  This type of structure would work with the HTML5 opportunity, giving strength in the Carriers ability to have an Application marketplace across all devices by pushing the requirements in the Handset manufacturer’s Browser.  However, Facebook is embarking now on a similar strategy via the web and ubiquitous across all handsets.  So if the carriers attempt to engage in this strategy, there is a strong opportunity for them across all of their own devices sold, but they will need to move fast and with some elements of differentiation.  Google and Facebook are coming strong from economies of scale and extending their strong user base to mobile.  The question remains whether an internet-based HTML5 Application marketplace run by Google, Facebook that crosses all carriers and handsets vs. one driven by a Carriers that only reaches just their family of handsets,  going to be compelling enough for web developers? . Carriers may need to think out-of-box and build more mobile cross-channel media relationships ( such as the TV, Radio, Agency, News, Retail) to give them a potential content and commerce position tied to their existing strengths of billing, pre-packaging, location based services, mobile wallet and point-of-sale marketing awareness.

( Some reference Articles)

InfoWorld May 11, 2011-  HTML5 not yet solving the Mobile Dev problem

IntoMobile June 18, 2011- AT&T creates a HTML5 dev center in Israel

Wallstreet Journal  Jan 5, 2011-  AT&T plans to create the most advanced HTML5 toolkit

We all know the fight going on between Flash and Apple over the iPad and iPhone……so it looked like we were going to see HTML5 as a potential  standard cross-platform for mobile and online potentially little faster then normal.  Blackberry 6 has brought WebKit and HTML5 to the world of mobile browsing, and Android keeps pushing the envelope with HTML5 evangelism even though they do have been a strong believer as well in Flash 10.1.

However, yesterdays news that Microsoft will not include HTML5 in IE7,IE8 might not have been the most strategic move even though there was the discussion of HTML5 in IE9.    In my opinion it is not HTML5 vs. Flash, but Developer vs. Platform we are talking about here. Now there is a very strong split between the camps supporting either HLML5 or Flash.    If Microsoft would have made the strong statement right away to move forward with HTML5, at least there would have been one platform for all that would bring mobile and online together in a very eloquent way today.  So Developer, it is just going to take time to get that consistency across all devices…..

In a diagram laid out by Tim OReily back in the end of last year, he showed the possibility of a unique convergence between Native and Browsing in 2010.

Well it looks like it is going to take more time.  Either Apple will come to grips and add Flash Support, or we need to wait on Microsoft to move a bit faster to integrate HTML5 support in existing browser platforms.

All and all, I believe in a couple years time we will see both platforms ubiquitous, so why all the fuss in 2010.  Why not make everything open and available for the web developer community and let them decide what is best.  At least this way we will not have inconsistencies for the end-users….or double to money and effort for developers

Maybe this will be outdated thinking after WWDC next week where Apple unveils iPhone 4.0 and the opportunity for iPhone Native Apps, but for some reason I do not so….

As Smartphone penetration continues to grow and grow, developers are going nuts with all the different platforms.  Google has thrown more and more fuel in the fire by creating a platform of fragmentation with all the different Android Versions.

Was this on purpose? Well after the Google I/O conference it really feels like that is the plan….. Create as much confusion as possible so that everybody reverts back to the Web and HTML5

Now look at Apple.  Fighting like hell with Adobe over Flash. Making it even more difficult for developers to decide which way to go?  Should I build a application in Flash and not see the distribution or should I go with the iPhone App.  Well Google threw another wrench in the game by saying that they are fully supportive of Flash and let this platform thrive on Android;  “We are Open, Apple isn’t” .

So where does leave developers as the full HTML5 integration is still not on all devices browsers yet, but it is pretty clear that if you build a great version of a mobile site instead of an app in HTML5 you get all the benefits of the web and also a great user experience.   Look at what Google has done with Gmail ( one of their Flagship applications besides Search).

There are many tools for web developers to create mobile sites.  It is clear in my mind the ones that bring a consistent web experience to mobile that incorporate application development tools and enablers to replace making a separate application is where the market it going. Many of the mobile site builder companies lost focus by trying to become everything  ( incorporating ad servers, creating separate content management systems) but what a great mobile site builder company needs to do is to just create tools for developers that gives then the best integration of HTML5 and mobile specific enablers and applications ( such as maps, etc….).

What I find interesting is that Adobe is driving HTML5 more then anybody else, and with the lastest release of Dreamweaver CS5. Designers can simultaneously create one-website with multiple views.  What ever happened to the Openscreen Project? Just make it HTML5!

It seems like this week was a key milestone for the HTML5 world. Google opened our Friday morning with an example of HTML5 Game ( PacMan) being added to the Google logo of search.  With approx 2B searches a day, this shows the scalability of having an active game embedded just as there was once a static logo.  Did Google pay for the rights of Pacman for the day? My wife thought her PC was attacked by a Virus!  Today was a great day for the progress of the web.

The Google I/O ( Input/Output) or ( Innovation/Openness) Conference was a great success in bringing more transparency and openness to web standards, and with the announcement of opening VP8 to the world as a royalty free licence ( I did not see the word perpetual???).  They launched Google TV, Music Streaming for the Android platform, and a wide variety of new announcements surrounding the Chrome App Store.  As for Wave, it has now moved from the closed invite only option that makes it very difficult to have a social network to being officially launched.

Yahoo announced the launch of a new class of interactive mobile display ads leveraging HTML5, CSS3 and JavaScript technologies.  Yahoo stated that traditional static banners across the top and bottom of the mobile device screen were not optimal  and with–the new format promises to solve those issues via rich media content optimized for next-generation HTML5-based browsers. Yahoo Mobile product marketing staffers Mandar Shinde and Calvin Hung stated that this will enable  ”creative executions of interactive advertisements” on the Y! Mobile Blog.

Yahoo will launch its first interactive display campaign  with Paramounts and DreamWorks Animation release Shrek Forever After. “Going forward you can expect to see more ads that are tailored to the way people use mobile or that take advantage of particular attributes of mobile devices,” Shinde and Hung add. ”For example, we know users like to ‘content snack’ on mobile and ads that offer video or creative interactivity can be very successful.”

Now Adobe…. With all the chatter back and forth between Apple, iPad and the release of Flash, you think that Flash was the lifeline of Adobe.  Looking at this revenue breakdown of the company, it is clear that Flash is only a small part of the overall revenue strategy of Adobe.  What was very assuring is that now with HTML5 being the next coding platform for the Web, everybody is working together…

HTML5 aims to eliminate the need for web plug-ins like Adobe Flash. Instead, the functionality of Adobe’s Flash platform will be available right in the code of the web.)

The gradual elimination of Flash sounds like a bad thing for Adobe, but it’s actually not a huge problem. From a revenue perspective, Flash only accounted for 7% of the company’s revenue in fiscal 2009, or $231.2 million, according to Citi analyst Walter Pritchard.

While losing a revenue source is never a good thing, the widespread adoption of HTML5 can actually be good for Adobe. The company is introducing a bunch of tools for web developers to make HTML5 sites. Its Dreamweaver software, in particular, is getting an update to help web designers. There’s no reason that Adobe couldn’t even built an “export to HTML5″ command in Flash. As HTML5 grows, Adobe can offer new tools, and thus drive revenue growth.

Both Flash and Dreamweaver are part of Adobe’s core business — “Creative Solutions” — which generated half of Adobe’s revenue last quarter.

About a year ago, I was a strong believer in the fact that native applications would only be a passing trend and the web page for mobile would start to overtake them in usage volume due to the transition to the full HTML browser in Smart Phones, the  larger volume of web sites and the ease of access via search and social media links.  According to Wolfram ( and a variety of other sources), I was able to find out that  on the web there is over 150M websites globally, there are over 8Billion page-views a day from the major Search Engine leads and over 8Billion page-views a day from clicks on links from Social Media.  Even though there are still only hundreds of thousands of Apps, this is a tiny number compared to the relative business of  the web and that over time the app would become part of the web experience with all content tied to links for ease of discovery.   In the case of a Native application that has been developed for a device like the iPod, iPhone or iPad is a self-contained black box and the content seems to only be accessable via installing the app and going to the home screen of the App.  Deep content in the App may be difficult to tag today for SEO    ( Search Engine Optimization) and this will leave many of the publishers of Apps only in a position to drive a user to the App and possibly not all the content contained in the app.  The fluidity of what we have know as Search Engine Marketing or Social Media Marketing that is the art of driving people to your site or landing page of content does not seem to have the same foundation around Apps in the internet that we have know to love with a one-click to get to the rich deep content.

Many SEO’s have struggled with the use of Flash in a site from the standpoint of this discovery and it has been a pain point in marketing for the greater search or social media marketing community.  New methods of tagging or marketing the Flash content and the use of other meta data/ keywords on a site have been used to refer to content , but it has not been optimal.

As Apps become more and more relevant and devices centralized around this experience has made it so that today we are looking at an entirely new Internet in my mind.   An Internet that has been structured by massively indexing webpages of content and the discussion and road map of the future of the Semantic Web.  Everything has been tied to links and now the rise of the meta-tags that can make discovery and access that much easier.  All of the things from the deep content we can search and discover to the apps and content that once was discoverable from a webpage.  Now with the growing trend of user experience and content consumption that are really self-contained packages derived from App stores the type of search needs to be treated differently.  This could be a new revolution for the advent of a new search engine to take on the Google, Yahoo, Bing of today that could essentially even be more social-media friendly as a search architecture.  Lately, I have found Google to be a mess in search relevancy, and I have been using Twitter as an alternative search engine for news and discussions more then 50% of my time.  It is also interesting to hear that   if Apple were to launch a new kind of search engine for applications it would clearly make sense given the course of this new Internet.

However, my gut still tells me it is going to be very difficult for one company like Apple to take on the world and create the next generation of Global Search Engine.  Rather a Search Engine for its own world and hopefully we will see some of the cool social elements associated with it.  What I believe could be the case from this strong spike in user adaption and the massive effect of apps on all of us is rather a new debate that stems back to the HTML5 vs. Flash discussion.  As Apple has been a strong advocate of the usage of HTML5 and has left Flash as the proprietary rich media standard out of its devices, there is room for the new innovation of leveraging now HTML5 as the new Application platform of choice for many media companies and developers and to breed an entirely new industry of Search Engine Optimization around HTML5 as it becomes the next foundation of the webpage and the run-time widget architecture of the Web.

Of course we will probably continue to see this self-contained in the closed ecosystem of Apple, and even through they are working with these open standards of HTML5 and others, there is this new paradigm shift toward Apps that will exist across all platforms that makes this discussion quite interesting.   Last week, at CTIA, I was discussing this with several different App developers from the Blackberry camp and found that they have started to do unique tagging of content even in the alert and push architecture of content from Apps.  This could be another hook into strong opportunities for searchable methods to all of this content that is formed from push experiences.  Apps have now been definitely know to be able to give us better experiences then typical web pages, but  the opportunities surrounding them from the standpoint of market discoverability of the deep content is still very open.  Will Blackberry at some point come up with there own search engine as well?  Will we see multiple search engines for different forms of App content that will then lead to the subject of an open API for the massive crawlers of the world to link each one in a greater search interface to find across multiple different channels?   Will this phenomena of the app keep evolving and create the opportunities for a new internet of channels and deep search accross those channels with dedicated tagging platforms within the apps of a each of the different platforms?

As the iPad’s application ecosystem evolves and so does the application ecosystems of  Blackberry, Nokia, Android, Palm, Windows, we will need to have a new kind of search and discovery mechanism that will lead us to a new form of Internet?  Look at all the Apps that live across Facebook and other social media and the opportunity for discovery requires one to be living in that portal. A simple Google or Bing search may take you to the App, but not the content within.

I would have never expected to see Apps over take Web pages, but this phenomena is getting so strong that it has and will create a New Internet  or Branch of the Internet that will keep evolving with the phenomena of  mobile usage case.  As we saw a strong growth in the area of SEO, SEM of the last 10 years, will we see a new form of SEO called SEOA ( Search Engine Optimization for Apps)?

Regardless of where this all goes, there is clearly new business opportunities for the SEO’s to start to design services and products for Application Publishers and Developers in designing their marketing and discovery platforms in a new way that is related to this phenomena of the mobile usage case.

As there has been a lot of debate about the future of search, I have found Twitter-Search to be so useful. It is clearly an enabler to find people of a certain interest group as a way to get good content and direct answers to your questions.  A lot of people still have not been able to really see the real usefulness of twitter, and I have  been telling them that is is all in the search functionality.  Whenever there is a topic or question I have, I can immediately find people that share that interest and can have a dialog with them.  Must recently, I have been facinated with the debate around HTML5 and mobile.  Here is my search on Twitter:

Once searching for this topic, I can have direct conversations with those that are experts or interested as well with the subject.