I was moved by a recent blog post by Clara Shih titled, titled “Social Showdown: Google vs. Facebook” who in my mind is one of those real though leaders in the social media space.

What I find interesting and challenging for Google as they attempt to enter the social media space is about spread of the social graph amongst users that are looking for choice.  Even though Google has 176M users of Gmail, Facebook is ~400M  strong as a user base, with many of them using Gmail as a subset to their Facebook accounts.   I thought with the release of Wave, Google was positioning itself out of the box from its own services to have an agnostic service that could eventually spread to all users.  What makes Facebook so powerful ( in my mind) is that it can exist with many other products as a connector.  Once you build something into an existing product, I find it pigeon-holes you into the users of that service and in many ways you can fall victim to your own boundaries.  This has been a very complicated position for many years when I was at Nokia.   Even when many services were launched, they were mainly only for Nokia devices and it was a challenge for those services to also work across other devices to create that brand awareness that this existed.  This is my opinion, but I feel Social communication services should be agnostic to all services and devices and work as a form of connector of services.  How will Buzz work within a Google defined structure of Gmail vs. Facebook that is agnostic and a service that stands alone on its own right that now is getting positioned across all mobile operators and something complementary to your email, IM, etc…   In other words, I would say it would probably make more strategic sense for Facebook to incorporate the email service of your choice as opposed to try to create your own email service that again artificially creates a boundary of usage when users are comfortable with their own email service and email address to begin with.

I do believe that Google will find a very strong way to make Buzz a success, but being positioned in Gmail was something that might be limiting.  Any other thoughts out there?  Here is also a great presentation by Facebook Mobile at #MWC this past week.

The Olympics has started here in Vancouver!  This picture sums up the beauty and excitement of the days to come….

It was very funny, now that CES is winding down, I felt that the “tsunami” of news about Nexus One would stop hitting me in the face. Yes- there is the constant faucet of Twitter about the new Android device, but there is an equal number of discussions about other devices as well. I like hearing the balance of debate about iPhone, Blackberry, Palm and others.  It even seems quite natural that  the other device manufactures  have formed strategic alliances with Google for search, but maintain their own platforms to bring a different flavor to the mobile world.

Given that Google has greater then 70% of the search traffic share in the US and over 50% globally….they do have the ability to market themselves all the time, and make it clear there value proposition of their products front and center.  It has become routine in our lives to use Google as a search engine…..  it is even a “VERB”.

Getting back to my story…. This evening,  I went to Google to check out something on Google Maps, and searched “Google Maps”.  Yes- it has been my mapping search of default these days.  Even though  I used to be a big fan of MapQuest, Yellowpages and others,  it has just become routine for me just to use  Google out of pure convenience.  This  again is a key factor and asset they have going for them all the time.  It validates why search is so powerful as the first point of the User-Interface we all use, and Google is clearly leveraging their search asset to drive business leads to their other services and products.  I guess why would they not do this?  It is only smart business practices.

Well what I found was shocking.  The first results for Google Maps  search was the Nexus One from the Google News…. [See picture below]  It was not the Google Maps product or something pertaining to this, but it was traffic to drive me to that feature on the Nexus One.

The only results on the page were about “Google” ( www.google.com) .  None  of their Strategic Partners?  No iPhone with Google Maps? etc… As this was one of the key features for many of their Partners, developer communities, it is very clear that Google has an incredible position to trump the very partners now with Google maps when it comes to marketing the feature with their new device.  So as a company that partners with Google to embed maps into product as part of your core business, you must have a very careful strategy on how you market Maps and Location based services as part of your product. It is clear that some of that marketing  spend could even drive traffic to Google’s mobile initiatives.

I tried to find “iPhone and Google maps” as one of the results as this should be very relevant today.  Well, I looked on page 2 of the search results and then finally found a reference for iPhone at the bottom of the second page. Not many of us users go to the second page.

I then wanted to see what Google Maps search result would be on the site GoogleminusGoogle ( www.startupbin.com).  I found these results.

This time we do see iPhone.  It is #6 in the search results behind Wikipedia, etc…. Not many bloggers sites or third party developer sites talking about Google Maps, and no other handset manufactures on the first page.

So from now on, regardless of the mobile device we own….. any time we look up any of those Google Services, we will get information about Android and Nexus…. It is just the way it is going to be I guess.   There is clearly a price for using Free services as part of your product strategy.  In the case of Google, their ROI for the Free offer is clearly leveraging your marketing spend and distribution to continually drive more traffic back to Google.

Some thoughts of key trends and areas of growth for 2010.

1) Facebook will move from the major online social media player to a very focused mobile application and developer platform.

Facebook Connect will take on new meanings.  Mobile Advertising will become the a key social media/ direct marketing/ brand monetization player in the mobile industry. Maybe even stronger then Google/Admob?

2) Smart Phone Critical Mass. Smart phone penetration will continue to accelerate with Apple again surprising us amongst the massive competitive releases from Google, Nokia, RIM and Palm.  2010 will leave us with >20% ( maybe >30% US)  of all devices in the market to become Smart Phones.  In 2009, about 17% of the US market had smart phones.  It has been predicted by Strategic Analytics and others that 50% of the market will be using smart phones by 2013.  So 2010 is the  turning point year in the industry as the massive transition will start as iPhone/ Android- Nexus One/ RIM/ Palm and Nokia devices compete like crazy that drives user adaption very quickly over the course of the year.

3) Mobile Ad Server and Mobile Ad Network convergence with Online will follow streamlining in the Agency and Marketing world. Mobile as a stand-alone media strategy and channel only will be less and less apparent… AdMob/ Quattro were the first to go, but the other mobile ad networks will be part of the continued M&A frenzy of the Online players looking to cross-over to mobile.

4) Cross-Border innovation and Cooperation will take a new form in the mobile space.  A spree of unexpected M&A from Asia to the US, and visa versa will solidify the need for operational interdependence in the mobile space. Regional Carriers and cross-boarder alliances…. I particularly feel this to be the case with  Korea, Japan and Taiwan first over China which will  happen a bit later.

5) Social Brand Marketing Innovation will continue to occur around the unique engagement and real-time platforms of Twitter, Google Wave and Bing, thus solidifying a more established budgeting process for brand marketers in digital with social media, search.  This could be the year of media buy transition from Traditional to Social. The rise of the social media agency and more association of engagement to pricing models… Intuition models? WOM models?

6) The innovation focus on Applications ( iPhone)  will continue, but there will be several new devices in the market that will begin to challenge this with the pure Web experience! Namely Nokia/ Android….HTML5? Flash light 3.1?  The App store frenzy will continue.

7) Real-time search will continue be a major topic and key to the “mobile moment”. We will see a unique convergence with entertainment and maybe event the music space.

8) Live streaming! We started the trend in 2009 with the U2 event and a variety of others, but live streaming now will ins 2010 become a basic requirement and model for events. Enabling increased revenue opportinities for the “mobile moment”.

9) Location will be a key factor in direct marketing performance pricing, and new innovative inventory opportunities will become mainstream.  Augmented Reality, Navigation Advertising,  Social Location….. map integration in media properties and publications will be standard.  It will take time for this to really evolve and fill as a true inventory source, but the critical foundation will be set it 2010.

10) User-Generated Content portals and Mash-ups will continue and verticalize.  There will be some big surprising new UGC solution portals for sale in 2010.

With the recent news of Google’s acquisition of AbMob for $750M, there has been real debate over what is to come of the mobile Internet and apps.  I found this acquisition interesting as one of the key strengths and strategies of AdMob has been in facilitating the iPhone in-app ad market. Although there are many providers such as SMAATO, Greystrip, etc…,  AdMob’s strength was with their self-serve engine and global footprint that enabled them to scale quite eloquently with the iPhone as well.  Many claim they were the mobile ad experts of  the long-tail publishers,  but iPhone was not a long-tail product with many extremely creative premium brand engagement solutions as apps leveraging AdMob.  With up to 60% of the apps free,  the facilities of AdMob and the others have been the key driver of this business model for developers focusing on the rich app experience.  Now with this acquisition, Google has its own foot hold in the marketplace of iPhone advertising even as it embarks on its own independent  journey with Android, with the monetization of both in-app and web a balanced growth and combined cross-media strategy.   As we have heard in the press,  Google positioned Android as the Internet machine,  the ability to add free navigation and scale with the largest advertising community on the web today inclusive of mobile puts them in a very solid lead position.

Apple does not have its own advertising platform for mobile to facilitate the free, but has been doing quite well without it.  Will Apple need its own advertising solutions to potentially offer as part of the free solution?  If I were a mobile ad exchange,  I would be talking to Apple about how to integrate the solution into the App Store process with the best yield management to give developers with their free offering the best revenue streams through federating in even Google and Admob. Was this not a problem that AdMob had not to long ago? At the end of the day as Apple is managing the platform, they are in a position to give developers the best revenue streams through yeild management and discovery.  This is what Facebook has done.  Enable their own advertising platform for their marketplace.  I think this trend will continue with platform providers all having their own solution for ad-serving and federating in ad networks and ad-tags.  I think who ever has an app store will now need an advertising exchange platform for support the delivery of free apps.   Not only that, having this facility will also enable some of the best opportunities for data optimization and relevancy targeting.  How will this now sit with AT&T that Google has better analytics of what is happening in the free community of iPhone?   Apple made the decision to drop Google maps and to bring in their own unique map platform?   Will Apple keep to the D2C only strategy and not get into these services further? As iPhone now grows,  so does Google with the acquisition of AdMob, giving them the data insights and strategies to see what is hot and what is not through the analytics of free in the iPhone Marketplace. We may someday forget the very powerful great reports that AdMob delivered to us about the state of the mobile industry via their network, as this will potentially go “dark” as Google has not been so forthcoming with that type of industry analytics for free. Yes- we get products and services for free, but the “secret behind-the-scenes analytical intelligence” is something worth its weight in gold and now a key asset they have to expand further.

iPhone is leading the pack when it comes to velocity, but Android is making its mark… with this we are bound to see Apple needing to expand to the other carriers in North America and also potentially open up a bit.  I would love to see stronger alliances with iPhone between the likes of RIM, Motorola, Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, HTC but those bridges seemed to be burned long ago? or not?

We are still in the early days of penetration of smart-phones and the overall potential of mobile access of the Internet in my opinion.   There are 150M Websites out there that are getting hit everyday even with mobile devices.  Many of them are iPhones that set the marketplace here in North America for full HTML browsing.  What is 100K apps compared to 150M websites? less then 0.1% of the size and potential of the Internet and with all devices in the future accessing the web, we are bound to see millions of widgets and mobile-versions of websites.

So when we say Apples to Apples comparison with iPhone,  I really feel we are talking about Apples to Gorillas unless Apple does make some major moves with strategic alliances and acquisitions.  I was once told, ” There is always somebody out there smarter and stronger then yourself in many ways, so leverage the community”.  Apple going at it on its own will now be a challenge with the Open Android approach that is sucking in so many of the hardware companies.  With Google now behind Motorola ( the giant that has been dormant for the last couple of years) and many others, it was fine for Apple to become great friends of the consumer, but they need more friends in this overall marketplace….. So lets hope and see if Apple will become the Gorilla in the room in the years to come.

Here is the leak of the Droid page….. As you can see on the right hand side, Droid is launching Google Voice Search.
Was it not so that Microsoft had search exclusivity with Verizon and Bing…. How did this happen?

mSearchGroove’s Peggy Salz presented a collaborative piece on how to best leverage location services on your business at the 2009 International Information Innovation Conference held on the 30th September & 1st of October 2009 at the George Hotel with the awards ceremony being held aboard the Royal Yacht Britannia in Edinburgh.

Now in its sixth year the directory assistance conference and awards supports the leading innovators and newcomers in the information services and search marketplace. To recognise the developments in the industry from 2010 the event will be called theInformation Innovation Conference & Awards.

ADObjects-Inc worked together with mSearchGroove to present real stories and solution for online directories to embrace a mobile strategy leveraging their content and location as a key driver for a syndicated business.  Here is the presentation from the event.

In the recent chart of the day by Silicon Valley Insider, I could not help think what a great opportunity it is now for a mobile company like Nokia, Sony, Samsung  or even Verizon to pick-up AOL for a sum of 4B+.  Just look at what they could  strategically leverage if managed, pruned and revamped properly to enter the Online Media space from Mobile. Yes- there are the possible Debt discussion, and  Yes- there has been the issue where the Social Media Portals have taken over the world, but if Twitter is valued at many billions, the clear assets of Platform-A, all the media properties and solutions, to me is clearly interesting in strategic  movement from Mobile to Online……

Excited to see that as we conclude 2009 and move to 2010, I feel my predictions were correct that 2010 will really be a pivotal year of cross-screening.  Besides Neilsens and now AT&T coining the phrase 3 screen strategies,  I am still a believer that this is not limited to 3 screens but a holistic mix of all screens linked together to Mobile.  The 3 screens of  TV, Online, Mobile seem to be this starting point of convergence, but the big one’s for me that have been overlooks are the OOH and in-Car and mobile.  Yes it takes forever to get a strategy and product in-place with the Automotive industry, but Japan has proven that in-car systems and mobile are inextricably  linked.   Below is an article by Sindre Lia of Infosyncworld based on the recent press by AT&T.

Interesting that AT&T went after a mobile company that goes cross-media.  My feeling is that the Gigya’s and Clearspring’s of the world have already established a strong base with unique cross-media platform and will now be aggressively going after mobile and widgets for mobile. Given the fact that  Facebook will soon  be launching a mobile platform similar to online,   I am trying to figure out why the strong incumbent mobile players are building strategies that have been to acquire mobile and then try to go cross-media.  If you are already strong in mobile already, why not go after the ubiquitous online guys and balance that out with mobile.  To me it seems like the direction is correct, but potentially the wrong play to be strong-cross-media leaders. Given that Google/ Apple have been strong in the online space and now mobile, it only makes it more challenging in the future with just a silo’d mobile strategy. Excited to follow this progress in 2010.

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AT&T Acquires Mobile App Framework

http://www.infosyncworld.com/news/n/10543.html

By Sindre Lia, Wednesday 30 September 2009

AT&T is gearing up to offer its third-party developers an easier way to create and offer widgets and mobile apps on AT&T phones and other AT&T enabled products.

AT&T today announced the acquisition of Plusmo, a provider of cross-platform application solutions, bringing to AT&T an open standards technology that will simplify mobile application development for its third-party developers. The Plusmo mobile application development platform is expected to be used by multiple AT&T subsidiaries, including AT&T Mobility.

According to Plusmo, the company will help AT&T in accelerating consumer adoption of mobile applications as well as expand the opportunity for publishers, media brands, service companies and developers to reach AT&T subscribers across a broad range of devices.

The acquisition of such a mobile app and widget framework doesn’t come as a surprise, as AT&T at one point said it was aiming to make it easier for developers to create cross-platform content for its phones. Of course, we ran a story on it where we explained how AT&T would soon start competing with Apple’s App Store. AT&T then denied that such was the case, perhaps because they were thinking in much larger scale:

AT&T Interactive and other AT&T subsidiaries will also explore using the technology to create other applications and widgets that work on the three platforms that consumers use the most: mobile, the computer and TV.

Last week Facebook announced its 300M unique user!  Incredible.  I also heard that there is now over 65M users that are accessing Facebook daily from mobile devices.   I remember the days at Nokia where we discussed a service that had a mobile audience of >100M, but today I believe with over 65M active users a day on mobile, this has got to be getting pretty close to the the top.  I am sure there is a service in China that is getting more then 65M active users a day, but for something so sticky and mobile, I think we will probably see Facebook to be the first to “break the 100M mark on mobile”

So where does this leave them with a business model?  Also there was some unique discussions of Facebook killing on advertising.

Last week when I was at Advertising Week, Facebook sponsored a wrap-up party that I had the honor to attend ( Thanks Matt/Lance) .

So it is clear to me that Search and Social are keys to a digital marketing strategy in harmony and it only validates the dramatic ad revenue growth of Facebook.  Interested to see what Twitter does with links and lead-gen.  Will Social media someday match Search Revenues?  As long as the Brands can be satisfied with the proper placement of brands in the mix, as Search has become a direct marketing tool, Social media can become a brand marketing tool….. See the book by Alan Moore and Tomi Ahonen ( Communities Dominate Brands- written many years ago and quite visionary…)