Maybe this will be outdated thinking after WWDC next week where Apple unveils iPhone 4.0 and the opportunity for iPhone Native Apps, but for some reason I do not so….

As Smartphone penetration continues to grow and grow, developers are going nuts with all the different platforms.  Google has thrown more and more fuel in the fire by creating a platform of fragmentation with all the different Android Versions.

Was this on purpose? Well after the Google I/O conference it really feels like that is the plan….. Create as much confusion as possible so that everybody reverts back to the Web and HTML5

Now look at Apple.  Fighting like hell with Adobe over Flash. Making it even more difficult for developers to decide which way to go?  Should I build a application in Flash and not see the distribution or should I go with the iPhone App.  Well Google threw another wrench in the game by saying that they are fully supportive of Flash and let this platform thrive on Android;  “We are Open, Apple isn’t” .

So where does leave developers as the full HTML5 integration is still not on all devices browsers yet, but it is pretty clear that if you build a great version of a mobile site instead of an app in HTML5 you get all the benefits of the web and also a great user experience.   Look at what Google has done with Gmail ( one of their Flagship applications besides Search).

There are many tools for web developers to create mobile sites.  It is clear in my mind the ones that bring a consistent web experience to mobile that incorporate application development tools and enablers to replace making a separate application is where the market it going. Many of the mobile site builder companies lost focus by trying to become everything  ( incorporating ad servers, creating separate content management systems) but what a great mobile site builder company needs to do is to just create tools for developers that gives then the best integration of HTML5 and mobile specific enablers and applications ( such as maps, etc….).

What I find interesting is that Adobe is driving HTML5 more then anybody else, and with the lastest release of Dreamweaver CS5. Designers can simultaneously create one-website with multiple views.  What ever happened to the Openscreen Project? Just make it HTML5!

Based on the latest stats on the  market share published by Gartner of the different device manufacturers and platforms, it is clear that Nokia, Apple and Google all have similar momentum and are growing quite steadily.  Today about 20+% of the entire market is based on Smartphones and it has been published that by 2012 more then 50% of the US  Market will be Smart phones.     From all the media, one would think that iPhone and Android would be overtaking Nokia and that Android would be overtaking Apple.   From the extrapolated data, the growth along the same line for the last year shows this is not the case.  Nokia, Apple and Google all seem to have similar growth paths.  As we do know there are more and more devices choosing Android as the platform, there is some strong momentum in the Android camp that is positive accelloration of device penetration.

With this all said, one of the biggest problems Nokia has is in its Market Share in North America.  Nokia has almost become invisible to developers and users of smartphones, and there is a risk that if Nokia does not make some positive inroads here, the effects could be critical.

What is also interesting is that RIM does not seem to have the growth curve like Nokia, Apple and Google ( NAG).  Again through the extrapolation of the growth lines of the different companies,  Apple should pass RIM in Q1 2011, and Android should pass RIM in Q1 2013.  Given this is still 3 years away, it shows RIM strong position today and an opportunity to change this course.  Depending on how Apple releases product through other carriers and its iPhone 4.0 release in the next several weeks, we may even see Apple pass RIM by the end of the year.

During Q1 of this Year, Nokia maintained it leadership in position and scale. The Company added close to 13M new device sales since 1 year earlier.  That is ramping up over 1M new units to ship per month or increasing the volume shipped of 33,000 per day.  For Nokia this is the increase per day, where as Google is shipping in its entirety 100,ooo Units per day.  This is  quite a big change as well, since at CTIA in March they announced the 60,000 Units per day.

As for Smartphone sales,  Symbian still leads the pack as 2.5X greater then the next player- RIM, 3x greater then Apple (iPhone) and 5x greater then Google ( Android).  The volumes for Symbian continue to show phenomenal growth even though the total market share went from 49% down to 44%.

It seems like this week was a key milestone for the HTML5 world. Google opened our Friday morning with an example of HTML5 Game ( PacMan) being added to the Google logo of search.  With approx 2B searches a day, this shows the scalability of having an active game embedded just as there was once a static logo.  Did Google pay for the rights of Pacman for the day? My wife thought her PC was attacked by a Virus!  Today was a great day for the progress of the web.

The Google I/O ( Input/Output) or ( Innovation/Openness) Conference was a great success in bringing more transparency and openness to web standards, and with the announcement of opening VP8 to the world as a royalty free licence ( I did not see the word perpetual???).  They launched Google TV, Music Streaming for the Android platform, and a wide variety of new announcements surrounding the Chrome App Store.  As for Wave, it has now moved from the closed invite only option that makes it very difficult to have a social network to being officially launched.

Yahoo announced the launch of a new class of interactive mobile display ads leveraging HTML5, CSS3 and JavaScript technologies.  Yahoo stated that traditional static banners across the top and bottom of the mobile device screen were not optimal  and with–the new format promises to solve those issues via rich media content optimized for next-generation HTML5-based browsers. Yahoo Mobile product marketing staffers Mandar Shinde and Calvin Hung stated that this will enable  ”creative executions of interactive advertisements” on the Y! Mobile Blog.

Yahoo will launch its first interactive display campaign  with Paramounts and DreamWorks Animation release Shrek Forever After. “Going forward you can expect to see more ads that are tailored to the way people use mobile or that take advantage of particular attributes of mobile devices,” Shinde and Hung add. ”For example, we know users like to ‘content snack’ on mobile and ads that offer video or creative interactivity can be very successful.”

Now Adobe…. With all the chatter back and forth between Apple, iPad and the release of Flash, you think that Flash was the lifeline of Adobe.  Looking at this revenue breakdown of the company, it is clear that Flash is only a small part of the overall revenue strategy of Adobe.  What was very assuring is that now with HTML5 being the next coding platform for the Web, everybody is working together…

HTML5 aims to eliminate the need for web plug-ins like Adobe Flash. Instead, the functionality of Adobe’s Flash platform will be available right in the code of the web.)

The gradual elimination of Flash sounds like a bad thing for Adobe, but it’s actually not a huge problem. From a revenue perspective, Flash only accounted for 7% of the company’s revenue in fiscal 2009, or $231.2 million, according to Citi analyst Walter Pritchard.

While losing a revenue source is never a good thing, the widespread adoption of HTML5 can actually be good for Adobe. The company is introducing a bunch of tools for web developers to make HTML5 sites. Its Dreamweaver software, in particular, is getting an update to help web designers. There’s no reason that Adobe couldn’t even built an “export to HTML5″ command in Flash. As HTML5 grows, Adobe can offer new tools, and thus drive revenue growth.

Both Flash and Dreamweaver are part of Adobe’s core business — “Creative Solutions” — which generated half of Adobe’s revenue last quarter.

With this rapid shift there is really still many opportunities for companies to join the competitive fray and  bring their products into the market.  This year at CTIA there was a flood of Android devices with many of the 2nd and 3rd tier handset manufacturers all getting on the smartphone bandwagon.  Even Tim O’Reilly ( O’Reilly Media) was recently caught Twittering about how surprised he was to see that ” the Android mobile web access is approaching the iPhone”.  Apple has just released its next 2 iPhones that should bring additional momentum to the smart phone battle ( Especially with Verizon).  Is this going to be enough for Apple to keep its lead? Where is the iPhone killer?  It was mentioned from an Apple employee that there is nobody that wants to create an iPhone killer more then Steve Jobs himself!

With this massive shift in Smart Phone devices and advanced applications makes you wonder how the Carriers are going to leverage this for longer term business models.  I have liked seeing the back-n-forth between Verizon and AT&T with 3G coverage.  This is the kind of  fuel needed to throw into the fire on the battle of capacity and end-user network needs.

By 2013 the overall Data consumption requirements are going to skyrocket and continue in a hockey-stick like pattern to 2015.  People will be consuming more media then ever from there mobile devices, and it is really fair to say that Mobile will really become the 1st screen in our lives by 2015.  However, with this growth, there is surely going to be innovation surrounding our online environment as well.  The seamless integration of websites, apps and the cloud is clearly the future in the next couple of years.  Therefore I believe it is fair to say that 2012~2013 is clearly the transition timing for real cross-media  integration.  For the companies making investments to be leaders  for the next couple years out need to really think of their strategies on how all their media strategies should come together with platforms that support all of the different extensions of access.

I  believe we will potentially see innovation in compression technologies and the efficient delivery of content. Companies like Speedbit and Strangeloop Networks are very well positioned to offer these kinds of tools that publishers need to deliver the right experiences to end-users no matter what device they are carrying.

So the transition continues from Feature to Smart Phone and the craving for new applications and services will continue.  This shift has finally happened and mobile is now here to stay.  Getting a mobile strategy that is sustainable is now the chance to grab this opportunity.

Some thoughts of key trends and areas of growth for 2010.

1) Facebook will move from the major online social media player to a very focused mobile application and developer platform.

Facebook Connect will take on new meanings.  Mobile Advertising will become the a key social media/ direct marketing/ brand monetization player in the mobile industry. Maybe even stronger then Google/Admob?

2) Smart Phone Critical Mass. Smart phone penetration will continue to accelerate with Apple again surprising us amongst the massive competitive releases from Google, Nokia, RIM and Palm.  2010 will leave us with >20% ( maybe >30% US)  of all devices in the market to become Smart Phones.  In 2009, about 17% of the US market had smart phones.  It has been predicted by Strategic Analytics and others that 50% of the market will be using smart phones by 2013.  So 2010 is the  turning point year in the industry as the massive transition will start as iPhone/ Android- Nexus One/ RIM/ Palm and Nokia devices compete like crazy that drives user adaption very quickly over the course of the year.

3) Mobile Ad Server and Mobile Ad Network convergence with Online will follow streamlining in the Agency and Marketing world. Mobile as a stand-alone media strategy and channel only will be less and less apparent… AdMob/ Quattro were the first to go, but the other mobile ad networks will be part of the continued M&A frenzy of the Online players looking to cross-over to mobile.

4) Cross-Border innovation and Cooperation will take a new form in the mobile space.  A spree of unexpected M&A from Asia to the US, and visa versa will solidify the need for operational interdependence in the mobile space. Regional Carriers and cross-boarder alliances…. I particularly feel this to be the case with  Korea, Japan and Taiwan first over China which will  happen a bit later.

5) Social Brand Marketing Innovation will continue to occur around the unique engagement and real-time platforms of Twitter, Google Wave and Bing, thus solidifying a more established budgeting process for brand marketers in digital with social media, search.  This could be the year of media buy transition from Traditional to Social. The rise of the social media agency and more association of engagement to pricing models… Intuition models? WOM models?

6) The innovation focus on Applications ( iPhone)  will continue, but there will be several new devices in the market that will begin to challenge this with the pure Web experience! Namely Nokia/ Android….HTML5? Flash light 3.1?  The App store frenzy will continue.

7) Real-time search will continue be a major topic and key to the “mobile moment”. We will see a unique convergence with entertainment and maybe event the music space.

8) Live streaming! We started the trend in 2009 with the U2 event and a variety of others, but live streaming now will ins 2010 become a basic requirement and model for events. Enabling increased revenue opportinities for the “mobile moment”.

9) Location will be a key factor in direct marketing performance pricing, and new innovative inventory opportunities will become mainstream.  Augmented Reality, Navigation Advertising,  Social Location….. map integration in media properties and publications will be standard.  It will take time for this to really evolve and fill as a true inventory source, but the critical foundation will be set it 2010.

10) User-Generated Content portals and Mash-ups will continue and verticalize.  There will be some big surprising new UGC solution portals for sale in 2010.

When entering a new channel or market, sometimes it makes sense to keep variables to a minimum and get that service and product right with that channel first before bring in the complexity of the long-term vision and strategy.  The next step was to launch the iPhone with a similar formula as the iPod.  ”Make a sexy device that the market wants and sell like mad”.  Then keep the incremental improvements and focus. [4] Shortly after came the iPhone App Store.   When we look back and connect the dots this all seems so easy,  but is was a long-term strategy and plan to tackle and grow in the consumer service and entertainment space one-by-one.   Focus and putting energy one step at a time with consistant improvements and scalable growth with a  strategythat could win has really proved to be correct with this one.

I look at the other mobile handset manufactures and the complexity of their products and  the jump from generation to generation tells me the unbalance between strategy and focus has not solidified the foundation that Apple was able to achieve.  Now there is going to be incredible competition from Nokia, RIM and Google in the next wave, what is the next step in this process of focus to keep expanding  growing thier loyality and market position.

Interesting that AT&T went after a mobile company that goes cross-media.  My feeling is that the Gigya’s and Clearspring’s of the world have already established a strong base with unique cross-media platform and will now be aggressively going after mobile and widgets for mobile. Given the fact that  Facebook will soon  be launching a mobile platform similar to online,   I am trying to figure out why the strong incumbent mobile players are building strategies that have been to acquire mobile and then try to go cross-media.  If you are already strong in mobile already, why not go after the ubiquitous online guys and balance that out with mobile.  To me it seems like the direction is correct, but potentially the wrong play to be strong-cross-media leaders. Given that Google/ Apple have been strong in the online space and now mobile, it only makes it more challenging in the future with just a silo’d mobile strategy. Excited to follow this progress in 2010.

****************************************************

AT&T Acquires Mobile App Framework

http://www.infosyncworld.com/news/n/10543.html

By Sindre Lia, Wednesday 30 September 2009

AT&T is gearing up to offer its third-party developers an easier way to create and offer widgets and mobile apps on AT&T phones and other AT&T enabled products.

AT&T today announced the acquisition of Plusmo, a provider of cross-platform application solutions, bringing to AT&T an open standards technology that will simplify mobile application development for its third-party developers. The Plusmo mobile application development platform is expected to be used by multiple AT&T subsidiaries, including AT&T Mobility.

According to Plusmo, the company will help AT&T in accelerating consumer adoption of mobile applications as well as expand the opportunity for publishers, media brands, service companies and developers to reach AT&T subscribers across a broad range of devices.

The acquisition of such a mobile app and widget framework doesn’t come as a surprise, as AT&T at one point said it was aiming to make it easier for developers to create cross-platform content for its phones. Of course, we ran a story on it where we explained how AT&T would soon start competing with Apple’s App Store. AT&T then denied that such was the case, perhaps because they were thinking in much larger scale:

AT&T Interactive and other AT&T subsidiaries will also explore using the technology to create other applications and widgets that work on the three platforms that consumers use the most: mobile, the computer and TV.

[ see the masters website ]

#1- have your website support a mobile tab for discovery.

#2- have an iPhone App for all those iPhone junkies

#3- have a mobile version of your site that is redirected automatically and also is set with an m.mysite.com domain.

#4- have the ability for real-time engagement with Text/ SMS….

With these 4 scenerio’s covered is a good first step balanced mobile strategy… for those with media properties that can support the costs.

Nine Inch Nails iPhone App Release [ Wired Mag Article]

The flavor of the month for a mobile strategy has definitely been to build an  iPhone App, and given Apple’s leadership in the music industry, iPhone is clearly a mobile strategy in North America over other devices that support different content distribution strategies potentially better.  There is a need for a good white paper on  ” My Mobile Strategy, or just build an iPhone App” – that I have started to work on.

With that said, what this App does is exactly what is very important to the industry and the monetization process…. build a relationship with the fans and bring them into the entire dialog withNIN.   Through this can lead to enormous monetization opportunities.  NIN’s Trevor Reznor states….” Now and artist needs to be a Marketer”

I hope this does bring a bit of clarity to the Music industry again that the traditional methods are now dead and building a Social Media Fan strategy with the right ownership of  Analytics is key. Does a strategy with MySpace enable Artists to own thier own Analytics and dialog in its full form?  With that said,   is not a silver-bullet strategy  to go out and develop an iPhone app at a price of $20~50K USD.  I would say the NIN iPhone App is North of $50K with all the Google Earth integration etc….

There is definitely hype here today and with Apps there is always a compatability issue that needs to be resolved. When Apple launches iPhone2, all the costs incurred with the development of App V1, might go out of the window.  The real value is to look at everything it takes to build a  CRM structure and strategy for your artists to embrace the new social media tools and get a strong dialog with the fans.  All of your artists should begin to look at how to best leverage Twitter, but with a clear understanding of how to capture the dialog and analytcis of the fans.

Here is an example of a search on Twitter for “The Trews”.   Just 3 hours ago, there were Fans tweeting about ” the Trews”.  The first thing that is important is for someone at Bumstead on behalf of the band to go and click ” FOLLOW” of each of the individuals tweeting about the Band.  Just think how great a fan will feel when they are being followed by the band themselves.  It is a process of feeling inclusive.

This is an easy way to aggregate Thousands of Fans that a direct dialog can be created every day.  Twitter allows for picture releases, even small clips, etc….. by having all this linked back to the Artists website and even a mobile version of the site can build a major engagment marketing process of having a dialog with Thousands of Fans on a day2day basis.

Just a quick Reference, today NIN has 13,917 Followers.…. Not alot, but after this announcement this will go up clearly and they will have an opportunity for greater dialog.

…. building Brand enagement with Twitter is a first step that will link to a mobile strategy, and a relationship that can lead to unique possibilities in monetization.  The difference is that this can be done for Virtually Zero Cost, where an iPhone App is a bit costly….

Why not build that base and then have the opportunity to share an iPhone/Android/S60/Blackberry App + your Website, Myspace page all linked back you your Mobile View