I Just arrived here at CES…. Clear day, but cold here for the desert! Definitely Android’s presence at this major Consumer Show will help warm up the mood.  2011 is going to be a great new year in the mobile industry in North America as both Apple and Google battle it out for the leading market share of smart phone devices.

#1- Devices, Devices and more  Devices

We are all looking forward to some of the new devices that will hit the street with Android.  As an open system and an entry platform into the mobile area the competition with ensue between Consumer electronic manufactures, PC manufactures, incumbents and anything you can embed an OS.

The Apple vs. Google’s Android (24.6% vs. 23.5% respectively according to Comscore) competition has first of all made a major dent in RIM’s leadership.  Will Blackberry move from #1 to #3?

At CES this year we expect a fresh taste of many of the new devices to come.

#2-  The blurring line between Smartphones and Tablets

This jostling is not only in the Smartphone race, but in the tablet market as well.  Apples iPad with its 44% marketshare getting nibbled to death from Android’s estimated 39% marketshare by 2010 according to the Piper Jaffray’s estimates.

Although there has been polarization of the different formats, a new breed of formats occupying that middle ground has started.

What makes this interesting is in the multiple forms of display sizes from the 3.5 inch Retina displays, advanced OLED’s all the way up the spectrum to the 10.1 inch and larger.  How will content itself polarize for these different formats? Or maybe not?

#3- Apps and Media Marketplaces

The big differentiator in this new era of advanced internet devices is in the content.   Apple’s leadership in the iTunes marketplace ( more then 300K strong)  has not been threatened yet, but with Android’s openness as the angle for developers to bring in new and exciting things in parallel to the shear volume of content.  The Android Marketplace has will quickly reach the 200k level and continue to grow strongly!  HTML5 mobile apps and content that blend web experiences on native app experiences is something we should keep an eye out for this year with the overall Android App and Marketplace experience.

#4 NFC and the mCommerce explosion

It has been a long-time coming to see this opportunity of Near Field Communications baked into devices.  The quiet release in Google and Samsung’s Nexus S with the Android 2.3 and the NFC chip is an indication that these enablers will be aggressively now released into the market as part of the competition to bring in these new business models. Apple, RIM, Microsoft as well as the mobile operators have all entered this foray becoming the next big battleground for local and location based payments.

#5 Connected and Suggest Advertising

2011 will be a year of advertising innovation beyond the basic impression based CPM models of past.  Android will be a unique platform where Google will bring out is best of ideas of mobile and local advertising that will go beyond the basic behavioral response, but to include the context of location and push.  How will this be mitigated so that our social privacy is not evaded? The debate will continue as the competition ensues.  Google’s Admob vs. Apple’s iAd will be two of the big battle grounds, but expect to see all of the local retailers, commerce and media companies bringing in new and exciting formats to make it more relevant for advertisers in this cross-media, physical and local connection.   The shear volume of Android handsets entering the market should make this a very dynamic addition to Google’s strength, but with Facebook’s Places Mobile Application and the opportunity to bring advertising into this mix as social ads will be another interesting spike in this evolution.

#6  Application Search… the other blurring line

Up until now, Applications have been silo’ed creatures that had activation to content only when downloaded and launched.   I would expect this to be another unique battleground as the plethora of content grows, access in-app will become more and more important as well as the indexing of relevant content on the go.  Twitter search has had the make-up to be the next big thing in the search space, but now will the growth of endless applications paralleling websites as the content for mobility; search will take a potential exciting new direction in the coming year with Applications.

#7  TV and Rich-Media Convergence

Android should make an exciting platform for the future of TV.  In 2010 we saw Google TV, Apple TV and the evolution of real-time video streams anytime, anyplace as a growing trend, now in 2011 with the advances in LTE and more and more content becoming available online this will be another battleground for the mindshare of consumers.

As the Android OS continue to show up everywhere in 2011 ( taxi’s, airplanes, billboards, etc..) this opportunity will make way for interactive video everywhere on the go.  However, how long will it last before content owners hold back from licensing content to Google’s TV initiatives?

This trend is also bringing in new entrants such as Vizio that has been a top Flat-panel manufacturer now entering into the smart device area as well.

#8 Chrome OS vs. Android OS cross-platform

Google has been strategic in keeping these two different platforms separated as they build within the two different marketplaces of mobile and online, but how long will this last. Android platform has been strong with the evolution of the opensource Webkit Browser based on a Safari core.  The Chrome Browser vs. The Safari browser dynamics has now put Google in a unique position for moving forward with its own enablers in parallel with taking the best from both worlds.   2011 will be the year of the Cloud when it comes to the connected OS cross-platform.

#9 Android , Google Music and Content Distribution

It seems like Apple has enjoyed the luxury of being predominant player for the last several years in the mindshare of the music industry. With the shear volume of Android handsets and tablets flooding the market, it would only make sense to see some unique play into the music space by Google.  This space has been a minefield of content rights licensing and business models.  In 2001, the world will begin to relook at the Limewire’s and the Bit torrents of the world that have made such dent on the business models of music.  Intel will launch a new architecture for content protection embedded on its chips that will find their way into the Android devices to come and the App Marketplaces will evolve with new dynamics for business models around the distribution and rights of music to attempt to give content owners more choices in revenue generation.

#10 Social Relevancy and the Android OS

It was rumored in 2010 that Facebook was attempting to launch their own devices the same way Google brought the reference platforms of Nexus One and Nexus S into the market.  There is no stopping Facebook from moving forward with this strategy, but it is clear that further enhanced and improved Social Relevancy will become a key part of the entire OS of Android in the near future starting with Android 2.3.  Facebook and Google have not always shared similar views, but with the large market penetration of Android moving forward they will find the right mix of cooperation strategies that will make this a platform that will leverage social interactions and conversations as a core to the overall user experience.

We have entered 2011 and I have to say the first decade did fly by rather quickly for us in the mobile industry.   I am a big fan of JWT and their things to watch deck.  I thought I would share it and highlight the top 10 in my mind for those realigning and creating a  mobile strategy this year.

As we all gear-up to fly out for the 2010 end of the year holiday season, are we grabbing that large guidebook and throwing into our suit case or travel bag? Are we getting the iPhone App, iPad App, or even Kindle version instead.

I saw this article on how Tourism Thailand ( TAT) is moving over to mobile and it brought back a nostalgic moment for me any my life.  In 1984 when  I was a third year Engineering Student at the University of Illinois,  I had the chance to study/ teach abroad in Thailand.  For me the Lonely-Planet Book for Thailand- written by Tony Wheeler ( at that time)  was a bit of  Bible  or sorts for my survival.  Back in the  Bangkok summer of 1984, it was like the wild-wild west for me.  I actually did contract Typhoid Feaver, and had many unique stories to tell, but that Lonely-Planet guidebook was something special in my overall discover and journey of the Thailand countryside.    The guide book lent it self for shoe-string travelers like myself to take notes, tear-off pages to share, and send in information that would better the book.  It was one of the first collaborative community projects of its time.  What happened Lonely Planet? I guess you lost the Tony Wheeler type characters of that day? Times had changed as well with global digital communications and the Internet of the 90′s, but it is something for me in my late teens to experience that was a slice in time right before the global World-Wide-Web.

Now as see all of this going Digital, that distant feeling of going to such a far away different place at that time has really changed as we  experience tourism/travel and back-packers of the day….  I remember reading about this unique noodle place tucked in the back-alleys off of  Sukumvit Road, and getting there with this diagram map to a Tuk-Tuk driver only to find the exact description of the Snake-charmer and old man siting on the corner adjacent to that Noodle shop.

Now we will be navigated with Google maps on our iPhone Lonely Planet App…. Not much Analog left in that experience…..:(

There has been a lot of debate recently about whether Foursquare will truly become the main point of check-in’s around places in the future, or our others going to to be the next game in town ? With Facebook’s Places now extending to Blackberry’s and the roadmap growth process for the 600M+ users,  Foursquare only has 4M users is not even 1% the size of its Goliath predator. Foursquare has been growing with brands and starting to bring lots of new value with different promotional relationships and feeds to their platform, but can they grow fast enough as a company focused on local and is their growth  pace enough to be sustainable? Recently Foursquare was compared to Groupon in its efforts to bring value-added promotions around the community, and some say that Foursquare will need thousands of resources to keep the momentum going.   Even though advertising can be considered great content ( if presented in the right way)  is it the right content that will make Foursquare scale with user acquisition?  For some reason, I believe that it is a good direction, but I am not convinced it is really the right focused strategy as it is so resource intensive to do all those deals.  Groupon emerged with a very different business model for user attraction that has been very local, but not as hyper-local as Foursquare.

In my recent visit to conference around local advertising from the perspective of the local directory companies, Foursquare was a hot-topic, but they seemed to be working toward building their own anchor around local advertisers and Foursquare was not the centerpiece.  There was more debate and discussion around social media distribution in general around Facebook and Twitter.  Foursquare’s game got them out of the gate, and they have tapped into the behavior of the check-in, but others are fast to copy this phenomena.   I am really looking forward to seeing how they scale, but they need something more organic wow now to attract users like they did with the first game concept.   I am looking forward to this evolution and see how they balance user focus vs. advertising in the future, with or without that sales force.  My question is can they keep the game going to continue to game users? Can the game concept continue to grow at a local level?

Today Multipled Media announced their Gas Price Search Engine as part of their different search engined federated around a unique location based map application.   I saw this product at CTIA in Las Vegas in March and was very tickled on how local-local they have made this.  Is there room to compete against Google Maps or Bing Maps? According to Multiplied Media- Yes.  Create a deeper more relevant intimate user experience that refines more verticalized search engines around maps.  As Google only adds many new features and content at a National and Global level, can they keep up at a local level?   This Calgary based company ( funny that a lot of Oil for North America is also coming from their back yard) is finding a way to innovate at a local level.   As Search products grow organically, Google has looked at a media strategy at the Global => Local level, where as many of  these emerging companies are growing from hyper-local => local => National level.

As they build this local audience and grow, where does this position them with the Mega providers? Acquisition or fragmented marketplace?

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Multiplied Media Announces Addition of Gas Price Search Feature to Poynt Application for iPhone.

It was announced earlier this week that Facebook achieved their 500M User base worldwide.  In addition, it has been stated that there is about 100M of those users that are accessing Facebook via their mobile devices ( about 20%).

Moreover, when we look at the opportunity and potential for mobile, the global  market subscriber base has topped 5Billion strong thus indicating that Facebook is still only about 2% of the worlds marketplace for Mobile Social Media (or MoSo).

Repeatedly, Facebook has been one of the most downloaded Applications on the iPhone, Android, and even Blackberry devices with the amazing statistic of over 50% of all usage of content on the mobile tied to social media.   As the mobile experience has also been “coined” to be very location centric, there is another converging category called Mobile Local (or MoLo).   This is tied to Mobile Search and Location Based Services on the go.  As the Geo API has been made available via many application frameworks, it has also been available via certain browsers to bring Location-context to websites and web applications.   Twitter has included a location API recently to  their suite of unique modifiers for Twitter Search and the Geo API has been a strong debate in the developer community surrounding the iPhone in general for location based advertising.

( Picture and Statistics from Hitwise)

So with 98% of the Global Market in the Mobile Social Space and the amazing growth of Mobile Location Based Services, it is apparent that there is a new opportunity for the next Billion Dollar Company in this combined MoSo or MoLo…… or should we say MoSoLo.   The quiet battle ensues between the several mobile location based social networks such as Foursquare, Gowalla, Loopt, Brightkite, Socialight,  and a variety of others, but they are still all less then 10M users, thus validating it is early days for MoSoLo.

Creating a compelling experience for end-user’s to “share their location”  for not only their friends but for a unique engagement with brands is now at a very interesting crossroads of growth and evolution to the next killer app ( or massive money making app- mmm ) .   Companies like Nokia, Google, Microsoft, AOL and Yahoo have all been putting up billions of  dollars  into this new contest for the next holy grail of advertising and social media, but it seems like  this MoSoLo end-user mind share is with  these new nimble start-ups at this time

Skyhook wireless, a company that has been strong in providing location information as an API for developers,  handset manufactures and Operators had recently released this “heat map” of  real time location interactions.  It will not be long before the heat map itself may be sliced and diced into different behavioral segments for real-time viewing.

Imagine seeing clusters about town of where people that tend to like the same interests or are connected to you are gathering around town at a certain point in time.

So by 2012, I would not be surprised to see a new player, jump out of the blue and take this next wave of MoSoLo or will Facebook be able to take a big chunk of this remaining 98% of the  pie?

I saw this today and thought is was another fun example of Analog meet Digital. Published in Yanko Design about Google Envelopes, students from Syracuse University came up with this concept of automating your email to work with the main mail system in Envelopes that are actually maps that have the route of how the actual Envelop will travel.  We forget about 20 years ago we were sending letters to our friends instead of the real-time messaging of them. Just in one generation we have shifted from an analog experience to a digital one.  Going back to the analog one could be quite nostalgic for more meaningful delivery of messages in all the clutter of a crowded digital mailbox.