The mobile movement. The complete mobile marketing story

I Just arrived here at CES…. Clear day, but cold here for the desert! Definitely Android’s presence at this major Consumer Show will help warm up the mood.  2011 is going to be a great new year in the mobile industry in North America as both Apple and Google battle it out for the leading market share of smart phone devices.

#1- Devices, Devices and more  Devices

We are all looking forward to some of the new devices that will hit the street with Android.  As an open system and an entry platform into the mobile area the competition with ensue between Consumer electronic manufactures, PC manufactures, incumbents and anything you can embed an OS.

The Apple vs. Google’s Android (24.6% vs. 23.5% respectively according to Comscore) competition has first of all made a major dent in RIM’s leadership.  Will Blackberry move from #1 to #3?

At CES this year we expect a fresh taste of many of the new devices to come.

#2-  The blurring line between Smartphones and Tablets

This jostling is not only in the Smartphone race, but in the tablet market as well.  Apples iPad with its 44% marketshare getting nibbled to death from Android’s estimated 39% marketshare by 2010 according to the Piper Jaffray’s estimates.

Although there has been polarization of the different formats, a new breed of formats occupying that middle ground has started.

What makes this interesting is in the multiple forms of display sizes from the 3.5 inch Retina displays, advanced OLED’s all the way up the spectrum to the 10.1 inch and larger.  How will content itself polarize for these different formats? Or maybe not?

#3- Apps and Media Marketplaces

The big differentiator in this new era of advanced internet devices is in the content.   Apple’s leadership in the iTunes marketplace ( more then 300K strong)  has not been threatened yet, but with Android’s openness as the angle for developers to bring in new and exciting things in parallel to the shear volume of content.  The Android Marketplace has will quickly reach the 200k level and continue to grow strongly!  HTML5 mobile apps and content that blend web experiences on native app experiences is something we should keep an eye out for this year with the overall Android App and Marketplace experience.

#4 NFC and the mCommerce explosion

It has been a long-time coming to see this opportunity of Near Field Communications baked into devices.  The quiet release in Google and Samsung’s Nexus S with the Android 2.3 and the NFC chip is an indication that these enablers will be aggressively now released into the market as part of the competition to bring in these new business models. Apple, RIM, Microsoft as well as the mobile operators have all entered this foray becoming the next big battleground for local and location based payments.

#5 Connected and Suggest Advertising

2011 will be a year of advertising innovation beyond the basic impression based CPM models of past.  Android will be a unique platform where Google will bring out is best of ideas of mobile and local advertising that will go beyond the basic behavioral response, but to include the context of location and push.  How will this be mitigated so that our social privacy is not evaded? The debate will continue as the competition ensues.  Google’s Admob vs. Apple’s iAd will be two of the big battle grounds, but expect to see all of the local retailers, commerce and media companies bringing in new and exciting formats to make it more relevant for advertisers in this cross-media, physical and local connection.   The shear volume of Android handsets entering the market should make this a very dynamic addition to Google’s strength, but with Facebook’s Places Mobile Application and the opportunity to bring advertising into this mix as social ads will be another interesting spike in this evolution.

#6  Application Search… the other blurring line

Up until now, Applications have been silo’ed creatures that had activation to content only when downloaded and launched.   I would expect this to be another unique battleground as the plethora of content grows, access in-app will become more and more important as well as the indexing of relevant content on the go.  Twitter search has had the make-up to be the next big thing in the search space, but now will the growth of endless applications paralleling websites as the content for mobility; search will take a potential exciting new direction in the coming year with Applications.

#7  TV and Rich-Media Convergence

Android should make an exciting platform for the future of TV.  In 2010 we saw Google TV, Apple TV and the evolution of real-time video streams anytime, anyplace as a growing trend, now in 2011 with the advances in LTE and more and more content becoming available online this will be another battleground for the mindshare of consumers.

As the Android OS continue to show up everywhere in 2011 ( taxi’s, airplanes, billboards, etc..) this opportunity will make way for interactive video everywhere on the go.  However, how long will it last before content owners hold back from licensing content to Google’s TV initiatives?

This trend is also bringing in new entrants such as Vizio that has been a top Flat-panel manufacturer now entering into the smart device area as well.

#8 Chrome OS vs. Android OS cross-platform

Google has been strategic in keeping these two different platforms separated as they build within the two different marketplaces of mobile and online, but how long will this last. Android platform has been strong with the evolution of the opensource Webkit Browser based on a Safari core.  The Chrome Browser vs. The Safari browser dynamics has now put Google in a unique position for moving forward with its own enablers in parallel with taking the best from both worlds.   2011 will be the year of the Cloud when it comes to the connected OS cross-platform.

#9 Android , Google Music and Content Distribution

It seems like Apple has enjoyed the luxury of being predominant player for the last several years in the mindshare of the music industry. With the shear volume of Android handsets and tablets flooding the market, it would only make sense to see some unique play into the music space by Google.  This space has been a minefield of content rights licensing and business models.  In 2001, the world will begin to relook at the Limewire’s and the Bit torrents of the world that have made such dent on the business models of music.  Intel will launch a new architecture for content protection embedded on its chips that will find their way into the Android devices to come and the App Marketplaces will evolve with new dynamics for business models around the distribution and rights of music to attempt to give content owners more choices in revenue generation.

#10 Social Relevancy and the Android OS

It was rumored in 2010 that Facebook was attempting to launch their own devices the same way Google brought the reference platforms of Nexus One and Nexus S into the market.  There is no stopping Facebook from moving forward with this strategy, but it is clear that further enhanced and improved Social Relevancy will become a key part of the entire OS of Android in the near future starting with Android 2.3.  Facebook and Google have not always shared similar views, but with the large market penetration of Android moving forward they will find the right mix of cooperation strategies that will make this a platform that will leverage social interactions and conversations as a core to the overall user experience.

We have entered 2011 and I have to say the first decade did fly by rather quickly for us in the mobile industry.   I am a big fan of JWT and their things to watch deck.  I thought I would share it and highlight the top 10 in my mind for those realigning and creating a  mobile strategy this year.

In a recent article by Nielsens, “The Smart Phone Battle heats up….”

they show the market for iPhones a bit skewed toward Women… Is this really the case? The stat that I find interesting is that even though 30.9% perfer iPhones, 23.8% are unsure….. This leaves an interesting opportunity for the Market.

As Motorola releases its series of cute smartphones, what is going to be the next killer design for Apple in their next move.  They have been quiet since the iPhone 4 release that was definitely very masculine focused in design. We still have not heard when we will see the White iPhone4, and indications show something to do with Verizon potentially…

In another article by Techtree, they say that women should adopt Android for Three-reasons.

1) Qwerty Keyboard makes for easier input…… no worry about the nails

2) The come in all kinds of sizes and shapes…. easy for the handbag

3) They are cost effective…..or does this really relate to women? More related to the transition from Feature phone to smartphone I would say.

To sum this up, I do not think that Android vs. iPhone will be a mans vs. a women’s thing…..Lets really see what Apple launches next.

Today Multipled Media announced their Gas Price Search Engine as part of their different search engined federated around a unique location based map application.   I saw this product at CTIA in Las Vegas in March and was very tickled on how local-local they have made this.  Is there room to compete against Google Maps or Bing Maps? According to Multiplied Media- Yes.  Create a deeper more relevant intimate user experience that refines more verticalized search engines around maps.  As Google only adds many new features and content at a National and Global level, can they keep up at a local level?   This Calgary based company ( funny that a lot of Oil for North America is also coming from their back yard) is finding a way to innovate at a local level.   As Search products grow organically, Google has looked at a media strategy at the Global => Local level, where as many of  these emerging companies are growing from hyper-local => local => National level.

As they build this local audience and grow, where does this position them with the Mega providers? Acquisition or fragmented marketplace?

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Multiplied Media Announces Addition of Gas Price Search Feature to Poynt Application for iPhone.

Maybe this will be outdated thinking after WWDC next week where Apple unveils iPhone 4.0 and the opportunity for iPhone Native Apps, but for some reason I do not so….

As Smartphone penetration continues to grow and grow, developers are going nuts with all the different platforms.  Google has thrown more and more fuel in the fire by creating a platform of fragmentation with all the different Android Versions.

Was this on purpose? Well after the Google I/O conference it really feels like that is the plan….. Create as much confusion as possible so that everybody reverts back to the Web and HTML5

Now look at Apple.  Fighting like hell with Adobe over Flash. Making it even more difficult for developers to decide which way to go?  Should I build a application in Flash and not see the distribution or should I go with the iPhone App.  Well Google threw another wrench in the game by saying that they are fully supportive of Flash and let this platform thrive on Android;  “We are Open, Apple isn’t” .

So where does leave developers as the full HTML5 integration is still not on all devices browsers yet, but it is pretty clear that if you build a great version of a mobile site instead of an app in HTML5 you get all the benefits of the web and also a great user experience.   Look at what Google has done with Gmail ( one of their Flagship applications besides Search).

There are many tools for web developers to create mobile sites.  It is clear in my mind the ones that bring a consistent web experience to mobile that incorporate application development tools and enablers to replace making a separate application is where the market it going. Many of the mobile site builder companies lost focus by trying to become everything  ( incorporating ad servers, creating separate content management systems) but what a great mobile site builder company needs to do is to just create tools for developers that gives then the best integration of HTML5 and mobile specific enablers and applications ( such as maps, etc….).

What I find interesting is that Adobe is driving HTML5 more then anybody else, and with the lastest release of Dreamweaver CS5. Designers can simultaneously create one-website with multiple views.  What ever happened to the Openscreen Project? Just make it HTML5!

I guess you can say, it is about time! Kyocera launched at CTIA this last spring with their first entry into the America’s after waiting and seeing for many years…NT&T DoCoMo brought Android to the Japanese Market in April with the Sony Xperia and Softbank was soon to follow with their Android device.

From the walled gardens of the different marketplaces to the open platforms, the world has come alive for the cross-border opportunity again.  I am excited to see these high-end toys now entering the states to offer a unique variety to the same old stuff we have seen.  Japan was very strong in the consumer product space in the 80′s and early 90′s, but then it stopped. The re-emergence of the US industry in the consumer space with Palms, iPods and the flurry of electronics from the Korean’s and the Taiwanese seemed to be become the replacement.

So what will be different that will make us want to buy them?  It is not just a hardware game anymore, but a one-stop-shop for all kinds of services.  My feeling is that we will start to see followers to the Google-TV example that started with Sony for a complete array of interesting cross-media interactivity….. Will Hitachi bring back its household goods back with a twist on mobile:  Google-Refrigerator?  What about Casio and their cool G-shocks tied to the mobile device : Google-Watch? and even NEC  following Sony with the Google-TV series?  These are some of the areas where I think the Japanese can really accelerate the convergence of mobile and everything around us.

1) Cross-platform integration into the consumer electronics space

2) Unique uses of mobile wallet and integration between products

3) Cool, fun, innovative designs and market demo differentiation. Highest of High quality….

4) Enterprise products and services for small  and medium businesses

5) Access to the wonderful world of Japanese sourced content.

6) Unique integrations amoungst the Japanese suppliers themselves…. Wii?

7) Cross-Carrier cooperation ( i.e. JIL )

Deep rooted relationships between Japanese companies and Microsoft and Google

9) Heavy industry and mobile. ( Trains, Buses, Elevators, Escalators, Ticket machines all integrated to mobile)

10) ….. or just another Android, Windows mobile device?

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Techcrunch reported last year that NEC, Hitachi and Casio were in negotiations to merge their cell phone operations to become Japan’s second biggest manufacturer, following Sharp. And the new company, which is called NEC Casio Mobile Communications and was established on May 1, just yesterday announced ambitious expansion plans.

According to reports in various Japanese media, NEC Casio Mobile plans to ship a total of 12 million cell phones in fiscal 2012, up a whopping 60% of all handsets NEC, Hitachi and Casio together shipped in 2009 (the companies will merge their cell phone operations on June 1).

All of Japan’s eight (soon six) major cell phone makers are going through a slump currently, mainly due to a shrinking domestic market and rising development costs for advanced cell phones. In Japan, the new company wants to cooperate with all three national carriers (Docomo, KDDI au, and SoftBank Mobile).

In the US, NEC Casio Mobile is said to currently look into building business ties with Verizon and AT&T, according to reports. The company expects 4 million of those 12 million cell phones it plans to ship in 2012 to go to markets outside Japan.

It is amazing that couple of years ago, Google was a search engine company with a great business model around advertising.  As they grew, so did their products and services.   From the vision of ” organizing all of the worlds information to make it readily available” to now a Media company with their fingers on everything as they transformed into to a major media company with several hundreds of products all free powered by advertising.   In a funny video released recently by  Time.com’s Odd Todd , you can get a good laugh over all of the value of these products, that are free, but in Beta.  Google has been a key player in the foundation of the web as we know it.

Chris Anderson talks about the Free-Conomy in this session at the Commonwealth Club about how to leverage free to build and grow a business in the digital economy. Google clearly had the vision and prowess to leverage this philosophy and become the giant we all know and love.

….But now, Google is getting into the hardware business.  We all thought that they would enter the mobile space with Android only based the software model of opensource and free, but somewhere along the line their complete strategy and vision seemed to change dramatically with the launch of Nexus One.

Moving from free open source API’s and software to the pains of managing inventory ( PCB’s. LCD’s, Batteries, etc)  and building products is quite a different animal and business.   I originally thought that the purpose of Google’s journey surrounding the Nexus One was one of creating a reference platform for them to build and develop what they believed was the ultimate mobile device in order to better serve their efforts around the building the best Android platform possible, but now the gPad?

We all wonder that when something goes up, it must come down… and this Nexus One to the gPad example reminded  me of the old Jewish folktale from the Wise Men of Chelm called “Ruined by a pair of shoelaces”. Is entering the hardware business and chasing after Apple, Nokia and Rim the first step to getting to over abundant and completely getting out of control? It at least made me think about it, and even though there is a long way to go in the evolution of media, why now to become a hardware player?

Strangely, but lots of panic from all the app developers today, when @Ev on the corporate blog announced the acquisition of Tweetie’s owner Atebits.  To me this is clearly an obvious direction and it could only be predicted.  In reality it should not really affect app developers as it is a very similar model to Google and syndication.  Think of all those websites that are powered by Google-Search?  It is like Google having a search engine without all the different types of its own end-user experiences to build and test out their business?  They need to best understand and support the end-user first and foremost.  The Web2.0 world already established the model for syndication, and it would be the kiss of death if either Google or Twitter stopped offering api’s for developers and publishers to syndicate and let the vertical world evolve.

However, the differences between Google and Twitter is that Google is an advertising company and Twitter was just growing larger and larger as a bit-pipe. Google was once in the similar situation and added advertising as the balance to only building out a user-base in the beginning.  In order for Twitter to start to build up its advertising business ( which will probably be the next announcement) required them to have the ability to test and launch it first through their own properties…. hence Tweetie.   It is like Google not having a tool-bar strategy to test cookies, etc…  This is my reasoning why the Tweetie client will be free and just called Twitter.  They needed this kind of product to test and build the best user-experiences to surround their product and build out all the API’s for syndication.  Now especially advertising.

I am bullish on the fact this acquisition took place at this time, and it looks like Twitter is really coming together to potentially be  the next Real-Time Search and Real-time advertising engine that links to mobile.  They now have a platform to test and evolve as a free app…..

So in my mind the Twitter+Tweetie is basically Twoogle.