We all know the fight going on between Flash and Apple over the iPad and iPhone……so it looked like we were going to see HTML5 as a potential  standard cross-platform for mobile and online potentially little faster then normal.  Blackberry 6 has brought WebKit and HTML5 to the world of mobile browsing, and Android keeps pushing the envelope with HTML5 evangelism even though they do have been a strong believer as well in Flash 10.1.

However, yesterdays news that Microsoft will not include HTML5 in IE7,IE8 might not have been the most strategic move even though there was the discussion of HTML5 in IE9.    In my opinion it is not HTML5 vs. Flash, but Developer vs. Platform we are talking about here. Now there is a very strong split between the camps supporting either HLML5 or Flash.    If Microsoft would have made the strong statement right away to move forward with HTML5, at least there would have been one platform for all that would bring mobile and online together in a very eloquent way today.  So Developer, it is just going to take time to get that consistency across all devices…..

In a diagram laid out by Tim OReily back in the end of last year, he showed the possibility of a unique convergence between Native and Browsing in 2010.

Well it looks like it is going to take more time.  Either Apple will come to grips and add Flash Support, or we need to wait on Microsoft to move a bit faster to integrate HTML5 support in existing browser platforms.

All and all, I believe in a couple years time we will see both platforms ubiquitous, so why all the fuss in 2010.  Why not make everything open and available for the web developer community and let them decide what is best.  At least this way we will not have inconsistencies for the end-users….or double to money and effort for developers

Maybe this will be outdated thinking after WWDC next week where Apple unveils iPhone 4.0 and the opportunity for iPhone Native Apps, but for some reason I do not so….

As Smartphone penetration continues to grow and grow, developers are going nuts with all the different platforms.  Google has thrown more and more fuel in the fire by creating a platform of fragmentation with all the different Android Versions.

Was this on purpose? Well after the Google I/O conference it really feels like that is the plan….. Create as much confusion as possible so that everybody reverts back to the Web and HTML5

Now look at Apple.  Fighting like hell with Adobe over Flash. Making it even more difficult for developers to decide which way to go?  Should I build a application in Flash and not see the distribution or should I go with the iPhone App.  Well Google threw another wrench in the game by saying that they are fully supportive of Flash and let this platform thrive on Android;  “We are Open, Apple isn’t” .

So where does leave developers as the full HTML5 integration is still not on all devices browsers yet, but it is pretty clear that if you build a great version of a mobile site instead of an app in HTML5 you get all the benefits of the web and also a great user experience.   Look at what Google has done with Gmail ( one of their Flagship applications besides Search).

There are many tools for web developers to create mobile sites.  It is clear in my mind the ones that bring a consistent web experience to mobile that incorporate application development tools and enablers to replace making a separate application is where the market it going. Many of the mobile site builder companies lost focus by trying to become everything  ( incorporating ad servers, creating separate content management systems) but what a great mobile site builder company needs to do is to just create tools for developers that gives then the best integration of HTML5 and mobile specific enablers and applications ( such as maps, etc….).

What I find interesting is that Adobe is driving HTML5 more then anybody else, and with the lastest release of Dreamweaver CS5. Designers can simultaneously create one-website with multiple views.  What ever happened to the Openscreen Project? Just make it HTML5!

I have been watching the trends of Twitter Applications, Browsers and Platforms over the last couple of months and this type of segmentation and convergence had emerged.

First of all, what has excited me and what I have been waiting for over the last year has been an application that handles automatic translation.

Given the fact that I speak both Japanese and English and have business in both Asia and here in North America, I have wanted to build a consistent cross-border  following on twitter.  I found that with the existing Twitter platform, the only way to do this is with two-accounts.  With my existing account, when I tweet in Japanese, I loose followers.  When I tweet in English, I have a hard time growing Japanese followers.

I mentioned this concept to the Digital Garage folks last February when I was in Japan, but they all laughed.  About a year ago during a Breakfast in Vancouver, Jeff Pulver ( Founder of 140conf.com, serial entrepreneur and VOIP visionary)  and I had a lot of fun with this by cutting segments from Google translate into twitter to go back and forth between English and Twitter.  Even when Jeff started to Tweet in Hebrew, he saw how this took conversations to the next level and really touched individuals on the other end.  I can not stop thinking of the smile on his face when he said ” This is amazing”. So this is really the state of now when we see the auto-translation of different languages for different countries or multi-lingual translations.

When I saw the announcement in April by Hootsuite I felt like they were really listening to the customer; as there must had been lots others like me with the same predicament.  In my mind this is a big move by the Hootsuite folks in their attempt  at this and even though we have not yet seen this capability on Facebook,  MARK MY WORDS….. This is going to be one of the most important features for them with their 500M users in the coming months.  If they do not buy Hootsuite, then they will do this timeselves by the end of the year.

Given the fact I would like to Tweet in both English and Japanese simultaneously,  I really thought this would be a feature that Twitter would release to the market.  Given that Google is so strong in language tools, and Google has a terrific product ( Google Translate), I was pretty sure we would see this from our friends at Google first. Even thought this would get quickly integrated into Google Buzz so that it scaled.   English language schools  have grown from the cottage industry base to a core part of  Japanese society.  With the growth of iPhone and Android devices cross-border,  I am sure this type of feature is going to be more and more important.

What we have seen is that our friends in Vancouver ( Hootsuite) have really looked to market differentiation with these translation tools.  It only makes sense as Vancouver is one of those multilingual communities, and even here in Canada most people have adopted the two-language way ( English, French).

This is what the Hootsuite folks have to say:

Need more ways to socialize? Seeking zen-like efficiency? Start by updating HootSuite for iPhone to clear your mind and make your social media experience more enjoyable. This update adds full localization in four languages to go along with the recently-released translation tools. Both are designed to help marketers, socializers, and internationalists understand the vibe about their brand, industry, and interests from all over the globe. Additionally, the release includes a kit full of new tools to help you stay on top of multiple social streams — and share the best parts with remarkable efficiency.  All the features are available in both the Lite (no-cost) and Full ($2.99 USD) versions of HootSuite for iPhone.

This may be a risky strategy for Hootsuite as unless they can get clients on both sides of the pond ( meaning that in order to really use the multilingual features, but send and received need a Hootsuite client) Twitter will just copy and improve on this. When Twitter does release its interfaces to support multilingual capabilities, where will this leave Hootsuite?

Secondly, when it comes to integration we are seeing many companies bring in all the different feeds into there Applications. Fring just announced with much success their Video-Call capability for mobile, Seesmic continues to be “Switzerland” with all of the different Feed integrations.  I have just been waiting for them to make the product opensource or open API’s… as we have started to see more of with Tweetdeck and the Buzz API.

So where does this leave us?  As Twitter sits in the middle of it all, it makes me wonder if Twitter has just become a proprietary TCP/IP-like bit pipe?   They made the move to build there user experiences by buying the Application company Atebits most recently, but they are in a  good position being in the middle.

The wildcard in this evolution in my mind is now the Browser.   So lastly, I must say that the convergence that starts to get interesting is now what Plug-ins and what enablers we start to see in the browser as it also has become a standalone application in its own right. Opera released its application for the iPhone and in weeks we have seen Millions of downloads.  They have developed a widget framework that has been adapted by several of the carriers now to promote services, application and advertising revenue from the Widgets.  JIL ( Joint Innovation Lab – Softbank, Verizon, China Mobile and Vodafone) have actively been starting to promote the cross border opportunities with widgets through there entire network of devices as a core driver for developers, but the fact still remains that over 50% of developers are now focued on iPhone Applications.

Opera has positioned themselves very nicely in this Application game and it is going to be interesting what the next big moves are?  Will Opera be aquired as part of the JV of JIL? Will Facebook buy Opera? or will we see the integration of Twitter and all these applications into Opera?  or will we see Opera buy Hootsuite?

The fact remains that in the Application space there is a lot of convergence going on.  What we have not heard much of these days for advanced integrated apps is Google.  They did have their flagship Google I/O conference several weeks back and it is exciting to see that they are really driving HTML5.  As HTML5 expands this gets very interesting from the standpoint of Application convergence.  Where will this all go with HTML5 ( See my next post)

I guess you can say, it is about time! Kyocera launched at CTIA this last spring with their first entry into the America’s after waiting and seeing for many years…NT&T DoCoMo brought Android to the Japanese Market in April with the Sony Xperia and Softbank was soon to follow with their Android device.

From the walled gardens of the different marketplaces to the open platforms, the world has come alive for the cross-border opportunity again.  I am excited to see these high-end toys now entering the states to offer a unique variety to the same old stuff we have seen.  Japan was very strong in the consumer product space in the 80’s and early 90’s, but then it stopped. The re-emergence of the US industry in the consumer space with Palms, iPods and the flurry of electronics from the Korean’s and the Taiwanese seemed to be become the replacement.

So what will be different that will make us want to buy them?  It is not just a hardware game anymore, but a one-stop-shop for all kinds of services.  My feeling is that we will start to see followers to the Google-TV example that started with Sony for a complete array of interesting cross-media interactivity….. Will Hitachi bring back its household goods back with a twist on mobile:  Google-Refrigerator?  What about Casio and their cool G-shocks tied to the mobile device : Google-Watch? and even NEC  following Sony with the Google-TV series?  These are some of the areas where I think the Japanese can really accelerate the convergence of mobile and everything around us.

1) Cross-platform integration into the consumer electronics space

2) Unique uses of mobile wallet and integration between products

3) Cool, fun, innovative designs and market demo differentiation. Highest of High quality….

4) Enterprise products and services for small  and medium businesses

5) Access to the wonderful world of Japanese sourced content.

6) Unique integrations amoungst the Japanese suppliers themselves…. Wii?

7) Cross-Carrier cooperation ( i.e. JIL )

Deep rooted relationships between Japanese companies and Microsoft and Google

9) Heavy industry and mobile. ( Trains, Buses, Elevators, Escalators, Ticket machines all integrated to mobile)

10) ….. or just another Android, Windows mobile device?

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Techcrunch reported last year that NEC, Hitachi and Casio were in negotiations to merge their cell phone operations to become Japan’s second biggest manufacturer, following Sharp. And the new company, which is called NEC Casio Mobile Communications and was established on May 1, just yesterday announced ambitious expansion plans.

According to reports in various Japanese media, NEC Casio Mobile plans to ship a total of 12 million cell phones in fiscal 2012, up a whopping 60% of all handsets NEC, Hitachi and Casio together shipped in 2009 (the companies will merge their cell phone operations on June 1).

All of Japan’s eight (soon six) major cell phone makers are going through a slump currently, mainly due to a shrinking domestic market and rising development costs for advanced cell phones. In Japan, the new company wants to cooperate with all three national carriers (Docomo, KDDI au, and SoftBank Mobile).

In the US, NEC Casio Mobile is said to currently look into building business ties with Verizon and AT&T, according to reports. The company expects 4 million of those 12 million cell phones it plans to ship in 2012 to go to markets outside Japan.

OMMA Mobile ( Brand Panel)

I will be moderating a panel at OMMA Mobile tomorrow ( May 12th) about brand marketing and apps.  Since the launch of iPhone, Apps used for branding and engagement purposes has exploded.  I will be exploring with some leading brand managers the overall effectiveness and direction of how they have leveraged and see apps in there marketing mix.  We will have Coca-Cola,  Kraft Foods,  Zippo and Fandango.

Some useful stats…

- iPhone Store has close to 200,000 App, Android marketplace 50,000

- We are quickly approaching 2B App downloads and by 2014 it is estimated users will have downloaded 6B apps

- Nokia see’s 1.7M App downloads a day off of Ovi store

- 40% of Apps used in the Japanese market are from oversea’s

- Verizon/Softbank/Vodafone/China mobile have launched the JIL framework for viral widgets ( Web Apps)

- There are over 85 Stores that deliver applications globally

- Today approx 91% of the US population carries a mobile phone and 25% browse the web

- Tomorrow 2012, 50% of all users will be carrying a smart phone.

- In a study by InsightExpress,  Mobile has been 4.5~5x more effective in brand marketing compared to online

- GenY is very positive with mobile coupons and access them up to 6x more then other consumers

-  43% of smartphone users view product or retailer coupons on their smartphone while away from their computer

-  While in-store 52% of smartphone users view a product description and 36% have checked the price from their handset

-  The mobile app has been know to change the dynamics of retail merchandising as the device is closer to the user personally then viewing the items on the shelves

-  SMS is still growing and a very effective App deliver mechanism and engagement service.  5Billion text messages were exchanged per day in Dec 2009

About a year ago, I was a strong believer in the fact that native applications would only be a passing trend and the web page for mobile would start to overtake them in usage volume due to the transition to the full HTML browser in Smart Phones, the  larger volume of web sites and the ease of access via search and social media links.  According to Wolfram ( and a variety of other sources), I was able to find out that  on the web there is over 150M websites globally, there are over 8Billion page-views a day from the major Search Engine leads and over 8Billion page-views a day from clicks on links from Social Media.  Even though there are still only hundreds of thousands of Apps, this is a tiny number compared to the relative business of  the web and that over time the app would become part of the web experience with all content tied to links for ease of discovery.   In the case of a Native application that has been developed for a device like the iPod, iPhone or iPad is a self-contained black box and the content seems to only be accessable via installing the app and going to the home screen of the App.  Deep content in the App may be difficult to tag today for SEO    ( Search Engine Optimization) and this will leave many of the publishers of Apps only in a position to drive a user to the App and possibly not all the content contained in the app.  The fluidity of what we have know as Search Engine Marketing or Social Media Marketing that is the art of driving people to your site or landing page of content does not seem to have the same foundation around Apps in the internet that we have know to love with a one-click to get to the rich deep content.

Many SEO’s have struggled with the use of Flash in a site from the standpoint of this discovery and it has been a pain point in marketing for the greater search or social media marketing community.  New methods of tagging or marketing the Flash content and the use of other meta data/ keywords on a site have been used to refer to content , but it has not been optimal.

As Apps become more and more relevant and devices centralized around this experience has made it so that today we are looking at an entirely new Internet in my mind.   An Internet that has been structured by massively indexing webpages of content and the discussion and road map of the future of the Semantic Web.  Everything has been tied to links and now the rise of the meta-tags that can make discovery and access that much easier.  All of the things from the deep content we can search and discover to the apps and content that once was discoverable from a webpage.  Now with the growing trend of user experience and content consumption that are really self-contained packages derived from App stores the type of search needs to be treated differently.  This could be a new revolution for the advent of a new search engine to take on the Google, Yahoo, Bing of today that could essentially even be more social-media friendly as a search architecture.  Lately, I have found Google to be a mess in search relevancy, and I have been using Twitter as an alternative search engine for news and discussions more then 50% of my time.  It is also interesting to hear that   if Apple were to launch a new kind of search engine for applications it would clearly make sense given the course of this new Internet.

However, my gut still tells me it is going to be very difficult for one company like Apple to take on the world and create the next generation of Global Search Engine.  Rather a Search Engine for its own world and hopefully we will see some of the cool social elements associated with it.  What I believe could be the case from this strong spike in user adaption and the massive effect of apps on all of us is rather a new debate that stems back to the HTML5 vs. Flash discussion.  As Apple has been a strong advocate of the usage of HTML5 and has left Flash as the proprietary rich media standard out of its devices, there is room for the new innovation of leveraging now HTML5 as the new Application platform of choice for many media companies and developers and to breed an entirely new industry of Search Engine Optimization around HTML5 as it becomes the next foundation of the webpage and the run-time widget architecture of the Web.

Of course we will probably continue to see this self-contained in the closed ecosystem of Apple, and even through they are working with these open standards of HTML5 and others, there is this new paradigm shift toward Apps that will exist across all platforms that makes this discussion quite interesting.   Last week, at CTIA, I was discussing this with several different App developers from the Blackberry camp and found that they have started to do unique tagging of content even in the alert and push architecture of content from Apps.  This could be another hook into strong opportunities for searchable methods to all of this content that is formed from push experiences.  Apps have now been definitely know to be able to give us better experiences then typical web pages, but  the opportunities surrounding them from the standpoint of market discoverability of the deep content is still very open.  Will Blackberry at some point come up with there own search engine as well?  Will we see multiple search engines for different forms of App content that will then lead to the subject of an open API for the massive crawlers of the world to link each one in a greater search interface to find across multiple different channels?   Will this phenomena of the app keep evolving and create the opportunities for a new internet of channels and deep search accross those channels with dedicated tagging platforms within the apps of a each of the different platforms?

As the iPad’s application ecosystem evolves and so does the application ecosystems of  Blackberry, Nokia, Android, Palm, Windows, we will need to have a new kind of search and discovery mechanism that will lead us to a new form of Internet?  Look at all the Apps that live across Facebook and other social media and the opportunity for discovery requires one to be living in that portal. A simple Google or Bing search may take you to the App, but not the content within.

I would have never expected to see Apps over take Web pages, but this phenomena is getting so strong that it has and will create a New Internet  or Branch of the Internet that will keep evolving with the phenomena of  mobile usage case.  As we saw a strong growth in the area of SEO, SEM of the last 10 years, will we see a new form of SEO called SEOA ( Search Engine Optimization for Apps)?

Regardless of where this all goes, there is clearly new business opportunities for the SEO’s to start to design services and products for Application Publishers and Developers in designing their marketing and discovery platforms in a new way that is related to this phenomena of the mobile usage case.

Although my Facebook account was down for 24 hours yesterday due to the Group Hack,  if my calculations are correct, in the next couple of days Facebook will announce the break-through of over 100M mobile users.  About a month ago in my discussions with Facebook staff,  I heard that they had over 65 M Mobile users and they they were expanding about 1M new users per day…… Therefore, I would imagine anyday now they will announce the 100M users and launch their mobile ad platform and the mobile open API.  Couldn’t be better timing then right around Thanks-giving  and the end of the year Christmas sales.  Great time for advertising.

Last year on Dec 12, at 3:27  they announced the 100M users on Facebook.  It is incredible that in less then 1 year ( if they do hit the mark and announce it) they could repeat this with Mobile.  This is an exciting time as it is the first service that has broke through the 100M user mark in Mobile outside of China.

Excited to see that as we conclude 2009 and move to 2010, I feel my predictions were correct that 2010 will really be a pivotal year of cross-screening.  Besides Neilsens and now AT&T coining the phrase 3 screen strategies,  I am still a believer that this is not limited to 3 screens but a holistic mix of all screens linked together to Mobile.  The 3 screens of  TV, Online, Mobile seem to be this starting point of convergence, but the big one’s for me that have been overlooks are the OOH and in-Car and mobile.  Yes it takes forever to get a strategy and product in-place with the Automotive industry, but Japan has proven that in-car systems and mobile are inextricably  linked.   Below is an article by Sindre Lia of Infosyncworld based on the recent press by AT&T.

Interesting that AT&T went after a mobile company that goes cross-media.  My feeling is that the Gigya’s and Clearspring’s of the world have already established a strong base with unique cross-media platform and will now be aggressively going after mobile and widgets for mobile. Given the fact that  Facebook will soon  be launching a mobile platform similar to online,   I am trying to figure out why the strong incumbent mobile players are building strategies that have been to acquire mobile and then try to go cross-media.  If you are already strong in mobile already, why not go after the ubiquitous online guys and balance that out with mobile.  To me it seems like the direction is correct, but potentially the wrong play to be strong-cross-media leaders. Given that Google/ Apple have been strong in the online space and now mobile, it only makes it more challenging in the future with just a silo’d mobile strategy. Excited to follow this progress in 2010.

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AT&T Acquires Mobile App Framework

http://www.infosyncworld.com/news/n/10543.html

By Sindre Lia, Wednesday 30 September 2009

AT&T is gearing up to offer its third-party developers an easier way to create and offer widgets and mobile apps on AT&T phones and other AT&T enabled products.

AT&T today announced the acquisition of Plusmo, a provider of cross-platform application solutions, bringing to AT&T an open standards technology that will simplify mobile application development for its third-party developers. The Plusmo mobile application development platform is expected to be used by multiple AT&T subsidiaries, including AT&T Mobility.

According to Plusmo, the company will help AT&T in accelerating consumer adoption of mobile applications as well as expand the opportunity for publishers, media brands, service companies and developers to reach AT&T subscribers across a broad range of devices.

The acquisition of such a mobile app and widget framework doesn’t come as a surprise, as AT&T at one point said it was aiming to make it easier for developers to create cross-platform content for its phones. Of course, we ran a story on it where we explained how AT&T would soon start competing with Apple’s App Store. AT&T then denied that such was the case, perhaps because they were thinking in much larger scale:

AT&T Interactive and other AT&T subsidiaries will also explore using the technology to create other applications and widgets that work on the three platforms that consumers use the most: mobile, the computer and TV.

In a recent article by Fiercewireless’s Jason Ankeny, he describes first and foremost the cool things that brands have been able to do with Applications and mobile.  Even though I am a true beleiver in the real experiences that can be generated with direct brand engagment and applications, I still feel that there is a long way to go with the potential here. iPhones are still limited in market penetration and with the explosion of new app stores there is clearly a problem for cross-platform and distribution simplicity for a brand manager.  Nokia recently in it’s Monaco developer forum (last month) made it very clear they are working on leveraging thier ” widget” framework off the browser for developers and really showcased some cool things to come.  Although it is still early, I am quite interested to see where developers will continue to migrate to get the bigged bang for the buck, but with “brands” starting to also drive this process, there may be ubiquitous targeting of multiple platforms from the get-go with this sponsor making it all happen.  As they say, “Apple” blew a hole in the window and now all the flys can come through……

In the unofficial web blog from Apple, it looks like compatibility spagettii is about to happen, or not? Being in mobile myself for the last 15 years one of the greatest challenges with application development has always been with forward and backward compatibility. After Apple has now reached it’s 1billionth download with >30K apps in store and in the market for just over 1 year, compatibility-hell (CH) has started. As Apple is no stranger to this, I am sure they will do a great job in informing developers what to do about this, but what makes this interesting now is the cost to develop apps. As it will now become the responsibility for the developer to make sure that there is compatibility with the new OS3.0, New OS3.0 developers will now have to start looking at their apps for older versions potentially as well. As it is not cheap to develop apps, this is another factor that has made application development for dedicated platforms quite interesting. When there are standards around cross-platform application development, the same CH exists, but there is a bit more assurance on being able to have a product that works across multiple devices in the market.  As a developer, hopefully companies like Nitobi with PhoneGap will work out these issues and make it easier and cheaper to develop with CH.  I am particularly interested in how this will play out with the emerging App Stories of WinMo, Nokia’s Symbian, and Google Android.  Maybe it is time to just focus on the web?