I have been involved with Search Strategy over the years and when we look at Search history it seems like as quickly as there is a leader that holds the ultimate reign, depending on the evolution of the web at that time, there is a strong possibility for that leader to loose the throne.  Even thought it all started with Yahoo and their great directory structure, then came along  AltaVista.  Although there were many others, with the power of syndication, relevancy and page-rank we saw Google take front place in the Search Market for the last decade.   Until now even though we are seeing new players like Bing making their mark, there are a variety of other entrants that are moving forward.  However, Google has stayed clearly #1.   Even though the Web has evolved from Web to Web2.0, now Web3.0, it seemed to be a Google World Wide Web.

Now with the recent annoucements of the new platform API’s from Facebook we are potentially looking at a completely new cycle of the Web called the Social Web.  Is this Web 4.0???  I have been trying to get my head around this progression, and I found that if we look at the flow of context and the 5W’s ( What, Where, Who, When, Why) there may be some hint in the overall progression of Search along this evolution.  Maybe the internet as well is in someway following this progression of context?  At the end of the day, the automatic answer of  ”Why is the User really searching in the first place” is a definite challenge that many platforms have been trying to solve with recommendation Answer Engines, but maybe the technology, the web and the timing is just not right to get this perfect yet.    Here is a brief summary of context and the 5W’s from what has been swirling around in my mind.    At this time it really appears that we guiding along the evolution of  ”When”.

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WHAT ( 1995~): What you are looking For? A  strong paradigm from the 90′s from the standpoint of web search and the emergence of vertical search.

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WHERE (2003~): Where are you are looking for some thing?  This strong  paradigm that started with the local directories ( IYP’s or Yellowpages) that basically had platforms with two search boxes.  This was revolutionized by Google and other to majors with one-search box pulling it together.  This evolved quite quickly from the early 2000′s and has become a major modifier for search today.  It is a very strong parameter that will be key to all search traffic on mobile.

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WHO ( 2009~): Who is looking for that item and the relevancy of Social?  For the first time in history Facebook is having its “Google Moment” as described by Michael Arrington in his Article titled- The Age of Facebook.  He described and I quote,

” In a talk a few days ago investor Ron Conway spoke about the explosive growth of Facebook. “They are the universe,” he said. I asked him if we are in the Age of Facebook. His answer was yes. Ron has been investing in startups for thirty years and he has seen the rise and fall of many companies. This wasn’t just idle chatter.

Microsoft dominated the technology world in the 90s on the back of their Windows and Office products. Google was the champion for the last decade after perfecting the business model around search. Both are still huge companies.

But all the momentum is behind Facebook and how they are changing the Web, and our culture.

Last week Facebook unveiled a variety of new developer tools, and new consumer applications are set to be launched in the near future. What’s most interesting about these changes aren’t the debates about whether what Facebook is doing is good for the Internet or not, or how open or not open their solutions are.

Those debates are important but they don’t affect the Facebook revolution any more than debates about Adsense a decade ago affected the decade of glory that Google just experienced. The fact is that Facebook is permeating the Web. Publishers, us included, are clamoring to organize our websites in ways that please Facebook.

Their vision of an open graph of people and things (with Facebook at the center) is becoming reality, and debates by technologists won’t changes that. Facebook is taking over our identity and we are going along with that happily. It will take a new technology paradigm to disrupt what Facebook is doing.”

Facebook’s Pageview’s have now superseded Google’s pageviews to be #1 in North America for Internet Traffic and with the latest Social Web links tied all to users is really demonstrating a power shift to “Who” and the content they create that can be linked and shared in many different circumstances.  Even though the power players behind “What” and “Where” are still evolving, this piece to the puzzle has been added and it makes for an interesting shift in the game of Search as well.

So what is next…… this is where I think we see something very interesting with Twitter and ” When” or there might evolve a new game in town. The “When” Search Engine will evolve that will combine the facets above and create a new momentum.   It is clearly possible for all of the majors now ( Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Facebook)  to move and capture the “When” as it is evolving, but there is again opportunity for others.  Even though new start-ups like Foursquare, Gowalla, Brightkite and others have been accelerating with their own index and unique user-interfaces building up  around “the data base of places” that combines What, Where, Who;  the key in my mind for the next wave seems to be clearly “the When”.  It was stated recently by ( could not find it correctly on Twitter- so I guess there still is the problem) about the evolution from Real-Time Search to the Context of Right-Time Search.

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WHEN ( from 2010~2012~): As information and micro-conversations explode in real time,  getting the latest information is one of the paradigms of the latest Real-Time Search Engines.  But the attribute of the Right-Time is something that is evolving to be a key driver in the evolution of Search.

As this has only started and Real/Right-time search is at its initial stages of growth, I did some research and looked at all the different Right-time Start-ups and companies listed in Crunch Base.  Here is a list of all the Right/Real-time search engines they list today.  Besides the work going on with many of the majors there are approximately 50 start-ups listed.  They are listed at the bottom of this article in Alphabetical order.

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WHY ( 2015 and beyond):  To me this final piece makes the ultimate Search Engine.  It knows “Why you are searching and can give you the right answer at the right time, at the right place, with the right links to all of your social graph and friends- the Who…..  I believe it will take years before we see this working perfectly, and it might evolve around the time linguistic enablers are in place for the perfect Voice Search.   This intelligent six-sense and search will then complete the picture of search and the 5W’s.

-  End of Post-

[Reference:  The Real and Right-Time Search Engines battling it out today]

Today, Facebook launched there latest implementation for web publishers that just “blew me off my chair”.  They have taken social to the next level by enabling publishers to leverage the social graph of Facebook to not only share articles, but to integrate this see seamlessly between both the users profile  on Facebook ( or news feed) and  the Publishers content page.

This was my experience with the connectivity with CNN.

1)  First of all, when I was as the CNN site,  I noticed the Facebook Share Widget.

2) So then I clicked “Facebook Connect” and went through the series of processes to Connect

….. Facebook Connect in Action….

3) I then had the option to sign-up for the CNN network…. which I did and become fully connected between Facebook and CNN.

4)  So lets take this for a ride….. I noticed I could go to the page within CNN to see all the articles recommended by Friends

5)  ….Then I found an interesting article on “Smell Sensors”.   I  ”commented” like and left a comment.

6) That comment was automatically posted to my Wall ( News Stream)

Paradoxically, as Apple further created its Walled Garden with the release of iPhone 4.0,  it took just one engineer to leave a prototype in a bar in Redwood Shores to stir up such havoc that could in fact be a major blow to the ‘stealth development’ and the release of the product in June this year.

As this is going on in the background, Lenovo’s CEO  Yang Yuanqing announced on Monday the Company’s entry into the mobile arena citing that he expects about 10~20% of their revenue to come from mobile in the next 5 years.   He joins his fellow PC Manufacturers: Dell, Acer to the mobile movement powered by Android.   Many of these players are building product in China and or Chinese manufacturers that are beginning  to drive Android’s presence to the marketplace.  There was a story in history about a walled garden and China, and it is strange at this time we are potentially seeing a lesson in  history repeat itself.  The Great Wall of China

As Google continues to rope in more and more manufacturers to the table with the Android system,  Apple is living off a one-trick pony of a strategy with only its one product roll-out step by step.  Yes there is an advantage to having a very strong pillar of a strategy and the consistency for all the developers of the world, but with one crack and this pillar could come down?

As it took a simple guardsman to let through the Mongol’s in the quest of conquering China, the Great Wall was rendered useless by the act of a few.  A simple mistake at Apple could cause the entire thing to come tumbling down amidst the competition.    I found this quite interesting on the day Lenovo announces thier entry with Android,  Apple / Gizmodo/ Techcrunch/ Mashable and others  while Apple is requesting its lost prototype back and squabbling  with the media.

If Apple is to take on Google and Android, they need a bit more of a diversified and syndicated strategy.  So that they are not missing a Bang with one product release affected.  I guess we can say that now is the time for History to repeat itself, or live and learn from History?

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Additions to the blog-post [ june 24, 2010]

After the release today, there have been rumors of recall due to  a miss design of the Antenna grounding. When left handed people use the device, it drops calls instantly.  Mobile devices are complex as as Google has mainly focused only on the OS and the Cloud services surrounding it, they are leaving all liabilities of hardware up to the phone manufacturers.  One blip, and Apple could loose it all with the IPhone.  They need to diversify fast as this Chinese Wall could potentially come down fast….

I was really touched by this technology by Rationalcraft on Winscape.  The fact that a user is connected to the screen with there mobile device is definitely where things are going in the world of cross-media.   This example is only for the purpose of Augmented Reality of landscapes, but think of this kind of TV display and the ability to zoom-in and out of a sporting event like you were there live.  Almost like what we can do with maps, but with live streaming.  Very cool stuff.

With the recent announcements of Apple and the iAD release even thought the mobile networks such as Crisp, Millennial Media and a variety of others are launching services around iAD, I have been in discussion with many mobile ad networks that are a bit worried.

In the online advertising world there has been  the ad network business, the ad server business, the ad exchange business, the yeild management and analytics business and a variety of others. Even the buy and sell side have been separated to match the processes of the agency world.  In Apple’s endeavors to enter this space, they made a very interesting choice to be in the Ad Server, Ad Network, Ad Exchange and then manage the publisher relationships.  They went after the entire value chain!  At least is seems this way?

iAD could have been potentially an adserver strategy  like Doubleclick once was to the Ad Networks.  They had two products; one for Agencies and one for Publishers.   The only different would have been that  Apple integrated an Ad server like strategy into the platform, and then let the creativity come from the ad networks that surround around it.  The fact that Apple bought an ad network ( Quatto) to be part of iAD is like the analogy of  Google buying Doubleclick and integrating in an adnetwork.  Nothing is wrong with this when you are in a position to do so.   I think Apple might have been potentially wiser to stick with ad server like strategy over an ad network one for starters to be more neutral in the industry, as this is just my feeling as it would have been in alignment with the iphone platform strategy today…. just being sandwiched in the middle and taking a cut of the action.   To also become an  ad networks  would mean some level of competition to get brands to place ads via Apple versus the other ad networks for inventory…..time will certainly tell how Apple manages this, and even though being agnostic might had been a good first choice, they are in a great position build a great ad network for themselves and own everything since the world and users love the product.

Hard to be agnostic when you have the entire value chain and you want others to sit next to you, that is for sure.   It is like Apple becoming a record label trying to pull artists away from other record labels to join their network at the same time asking the record labels to link to their distribution…. I guess you can say they are doing this somewhat as well.   Apple has done a great job at being agnostic to a certain point even though it is a closed ecosystem.   There was a comfort in partnership and a long term trust from participants.

So I guess now that  they have the momentum, why not do it themselves? Google did this with Doubleclick.   Is this not like  it has been in the media world all the time? Companies do a lot of syndicating back and forth..  Disney definitely sells ads for its network, and so does most other media.   It is a clear indication that direct networks will stay  the predominate force for direct  network publishers.  I guess you could ask, how a company like Glam is any different?  They own a lot of publishers that are part of their focused verticals.  The difference I guess is that Apple now owns the entire thing ( the horizontal as well)  when content moves through the platform.

There are many early adapters already out there that just watch media on their PC’s, Mobile and do not even own a TV set.   Most likely they are in their 20′s or even younger and part of the new generation.   I myself grew-up with TV and still can not help coming home in the evening and turning on the Tube.  I like to lean-back and relax over my favorite news shows, sports, re-runs of Startrek and occasionally catch a move that I have either seen in the past or just never had the time for.  I have been frustrated with the programming of SHAW cable, but have not felt the need to pay more for additional channels.

However recently, I have felt a certain lack of need to turn on the TV set as much as I used to.  I am definitely an early adapter, but with media, I still enjoy the feeling of the newsprint through my fingers and the sensations of enjoying the high-quality content of a paper magazine.  This can not be helped as I grew up with this form of media, and it is definitely ingrained in my senses. TV had definitely been my main form of media consumption, but with all of the recent advances with content online my mind seems to be shifting.

I now imaging a great LCD hanging from my wall,  but with a connection to the internet as a main source of content to consume.  We just in fact might drop our monthly SHAW cable subscription, as the availability of free content on the web has started to embrace me more then the poor programming and choice over at SHAW.  Again, even though I am in my 40′s and a lover of traditional media, it has really started to die for me in the method of delivery.  Today already, I consumed several video’s from youtube, watched some favorite shows on Fora.TV and caught a couple of pod-casts.  I even watched some of the Masters over the weekend that was streamed.

So it  is starting to happen to me, then it is clearly a point in time that this transformation has really begun I believe.  Unless SHAW gets better at programming, the need to pay that monthly $50 or so will go away…

It is amazing that couple of years ago, Google was a search engine company with a great business model around advertising.  As they grew, so did their products and services.   From the vision of ” organizing all of the worlds information to make it readily available” to now a Media company with their fingers on everything as they transformed into to a major media company with several hundreds of products all free powered by advertising.   In a funny video released recently by  Time.com’s Odd Todd , you can get a good laugh over all of the value of these products, that are free, but in Beta.  Google has been a key player in the foundation of the web as we know it.

Chris Anderson talks about the Free-Conomy in this session at the Commonwealth Club about how to leverage free to build and grow a business in the digital economy. Google clearly had the vision and prowess to leverage this philosophy and become the giant we all know and love.

….But now, Google is getting into the hardware business.  We all thought that they would enter the mobile space with Android only based the software model of opensource and free, but somewhere along the line their complete strategy and vision seemed to change dramatically with the launch of Nexus One.

Moving from free open source API’s and software to the pains of managing inventory ( PCB’s. LCD’s, Batteries, etc)  and building products is quite a different animal and business.   I originally thought that the purpose of Google’s journey surrounding the Nexus One was one of creating a reference platform for them to build and develop what they believed was the ultimate mobile device in order to better serve their efforts around the building the best Android platform possible, but now the gPad?

We all wonder that when something goes up, it must come down… and this Nexus One to the gPad example reminded  me of the old Jewish folktale from the Wise Men of Chelm called “Ruined by a pair of shoelaces”. Is entering the hardware business and chasing after Apple, Nokia and Rim the first step to getting to over abundant and completely getting out of control? It at least made me think about it, and even though there is a long way to go in the evolution of media, why now to become a hardware player?

Strangely, but lots of panic from all the app developers today, when @Ev on the corporate blog announced the acquisition of Tweetie’s owner Atebits.  To me this is clearly an obvious direction and it could only be predicted.  In reality it should not really affect app developers as it is a very similar model to Google and syndication.  Think of all those websites that are powered by Google-Search?  It is like Google having a search engine without all the different types of its own end-user experiences to build and test out their business?  They need to best understand and support the end-user first and foremost.  The Web2.0 world already established the model for syndication, and it would be the kiss of death if either Google or Twitter stopped offering api’s for developers and publishers to syndicate and let the vertical world evolve.

However, the differences between Google and Twitter is that Google is an advertising company and Twitter was just growing larger and larger as a bit-pipe. Google was once in the similar situation and added advertising as the balance to only building out a user-base in the beginning.  In order for Twitter to start to build up its advertising business ( which will probably be the next announcement) required them to have the ability to test and launch it first through their own properties…. hence Tweetie.   It is like Google not having a tool-bar strategy to test cookies, etc…  This is my reasoning why the Tweetie client will be free and just called Twitter.  They needed this kind of product to test and build the best user-experiences to surround their product and build out all the API’s for syndication.  Now especially advertising.

I am bullish on the fact this acquisition took place at this time, and it looks like Twitter is really coming together to potentially be  the next Real-Time Search and Real-time advertising engine that links to mobile.  They now have a platform to test and evolve as a free app…..

So in my mind the Twitter+Tweetie is basically Twoogle.

Richard Ting, Head of Mobile R/GA posted in his posterous a very cool example of connecting an iPhone Application to an Automobile.

This is again the taste of the future of cool apps connected to “things”…..

Facebook has been successful in not only owning the user, but they do a great job in “viral marketing”.  Will this growth continue or will privacy kill them? Will they become the next Internet? Will they form that unique strategic partnership with Apple?  They are consistently going from country to country and becoming the underlining social graph.

However, there are countries that have not become dominated yet by Facebook.  Not only are they in the top of Apple’s portfolio of must downloaded applications, Mobile has been know to be a usage case of social media ( >50%).  Many strong mobile players such as Mocospace, AirG, Brightkite, Loopt, Gowalla, Foursquare keep on growing, but the shear volume of growth of Facebook is astounding.

Many companies have leveraged “Facebook Connect” as a way to build there usage base, and they seem unstoppable.  Bebo is up for sale, and the other social networks are taking on a completely new business models.   Even Twitter has not shown the growth yet as Facebook, and as Facebook has prided itself with Direct to the end-user, they can bring any kind of app as integrated into their platform and just crush the competition.  Location was launched recently in Facebook, but when are we going to see extravagant maps tied to the overall service.

As they say, “what goes up- must come down” so it will be interesting to see where they peak or will they just become the WWW…. or FFF.